Subject: USA U-18 Team

USA takes the lead on 2RW Schroeder's goal off of the rebound.

3C Rodger Baker scores on another rebound to make it 2-0 against a stingy team.

Shots are 15-6 in favor of the United States after the first.

The USA gives up a rare power play goal to bring the score to 2-1.

After 2, the score remains 2-1, with 28-10 shots on goal in favor of the U.S.

Belgium ties the game at 2-2.

It remains 2-2 and goes to overtime. Shots are 38-16 in the favor of the U.S.

Another shootout...

Shots are 42-16 in favor of the U.S.

The USA somehow manages to take the 2-0 win in the shootout.

The USA won 3-2 against Belgium today in a shootout. As expected, the USA dominated the game, but struggled to solve 1268 OR 18 year old phenom Tony Van den Brempt. The USA outshot Belgium 42-16, won 38/65 faceoffs, and took only 2 penalties to Belgium's 5, but Belgium managed to score the only power play goal, earning them a point. The USA even won on tactics against Belgium who live and die by breaking up play.

In the big picture, the overtime win brings the USA into 5th place (tied for 4th). They find themselves four goals behind Ireland, 2 points and four goals behind Belgium, 5 points and 7 goals behind Switzerland, and 6 points and 8 goals behind Bosnia.

4 games remain against Bosnia, Aregentina, Turkey, and Ireland. The USA has already played the two most challenging teams. The USA will play Bosnia tomorrow. Bosnia has a similar team to the USA except for having a weaker offense (on paper). This is must win game. If the USA can win in regulation by a respectable margin, then it could find itself back in contention.

It should be noted that Bosnia has not played Switzerland or Belgium yet. If the USA can beat Bosnia, then it will find itself within one game of second place (possibly first place as well), no matter how Bosnia fairs in its other two important games.

The United States was winning 2-1, until with 41 seconds left in the game, Dre Thibodeau missed an empty net and Bosnia captured the rebound, scoring in the aftermath. The United States won 2-0 in the shootout again. The United States took too many penalties (6) but managed to kill all of them off. They have Earl Barrett to thank for coming out of the game with any points.

With the overtime win, the United States finds itself tied with Estonia for fourth place (the United States holds the tiebreaker) with 5 points. Belgium is third with 8 points, and Bosnia and Switzerland are tied for first with 10 points each. In order to advance, the loser of the match between Bosnia and Switzerland will need to lose the remainder of its games (they can lose one in overtime if the United States can catch up in the goal differential). If Bosnia loses it will need to lose to Belgium (it probably won't lose to Estonia). If Switzerland loses, it will need to lose to Ireland who, with goaltending nearly as good as Belgium's can very well manage an upset (Switzerland probably won't lose to Turkey). In either case, Belgium will need to lose at least one game to either Argentina or Bosnia (only if Bosnia beats Switzerland) since it won't lose to Turkey. The United States will need to take 9/9 of its remaining points, however, it will play three of the four weakest teams in the process; these games will also provide the best chance for blowout wins to catch up on goal differential.

The United States plays Argentina tomorrow.

The game engine still seems out to get me. The United States came back from a 1-3 deficit, only to to participate in yet another shootout, this time losing. The United States doubled up on shots, won more faceoffs, controlled the puck for 60% of the time, kept penalties down, and won yet again in tactics, but failed to take the win. Perhaps I should try to lose on tactics next time. The United States also had notably better team strength in every category.

The United States, though its chances are almost nonexistent at this point, received a huge break when Belgium was upset by Turkey today. Switzerland also routed Bosnia 6-0, bringing Bosnia's goal differential within striking distance.

In order to get the second spot, Belgium must lose at least 2 points to either Bosnia (though the U.S. has less of a chance if the loss is against Bosnia) or Argentina (who has taken both Switzerland and the United States into overtime); Bosnia must not get more than 2 points against Belgium and Estonia (it will be tough for Estonia to gain a point against Bosnia, though they have surprised so far); Estonia must lose to either Bosnia or Argentina. The best chance for the United States would be for Argentina to beat Estonia and Belgium, for Belgium to beat Bosnia, and for Estonia to take Bosnia to overtime.

The next game tomorrow will be against Turkey, who should be the easiest opponent in the tournament. This is the United States' chance to catch up in goal differential.

The United States finally did its job against Turkey today, winning 7-0, giving the United States the second best goal differential after 6 games. The United States outshot Turkey 40-15, won nearly 2/3 of its faceoffs, held nearly 2/3 of the possession time, and won yet again on tactics. A few players, including goaltender Ulberto Brewer, played their first games today and inserted some much needed energy into the lineup.

Unfortunately, since Bosnia and Belgium both won, the United States was still eliminated. Switzerland will promote and Bosnia will promote unless Belgium wins in regulation.

Over the course of the tournament, despite generally outplaying their opponents in most respects/winning the tactics battles/being significantly better on paper, the United States has been victim to untimely goals and hot goalies. They lost a point to Belgium by giving up a goal (after having missed an empty net) in the last 41 seconds of a game. They lost a point by giving up a late goal against Bosnia. They lost 2 points by inexplicably failing to score on a weak Estonian team and losing a 6 round shootout. Any one of those points would have been enough to give the United States a very good chance to promote tomorrow. The United States was good enough to promote and generally played well enough to promote, but there's not much that can be done about the randomness inherent in the game engine. The one thing that the United States (it may not be unique to the United States in this tournament) could have done better would have been to capitalize more off of its powerplays.

Looking at next year, it looks like Slovenia and Canada will probably demote, both will probably be challenging teams. On the other hand, the toughest opponents from this year, Switzerland and Bosnia, won't be back while Belgium won't have the benefit of its absurd goaltender.

Next year will be an exciting year for the United States. Bolin/Cardwell/Warren/Gallant/Haus will be back again in the lineup and probably comprise an awesome first line. Fellows/Robertson/Stanton from the reserves might comprise a promising second forward line. I don't think there will be a depth problem like there was at LW this year, though goaltending will probably be at best comparable to this year (Colbert/Hobbs). With that said, if Willman is trained well, he should be a very good goalie in two years. Louie Lance (now nearly a 700 OR 15 year-old brought to my attention by Leggman) will have a very good chance to break into the lineup as a 16 year-old; he'll be an amazing player for the team in 2 years (I think he's a center, but possibly a LW). There are a ton of good 17 year-olds on and off the roster, all of whom I have scouted, to consider as well. Hopefully I will be back next year to work with the team.

I am happy to address any questions, concerns, ideas that anyone may have for me, on this thread or by message.

I apparently promised some credits in the bid, so I guess I can still try to get Schroeder/Witherspoon(Boilermakers)/Baker (HCD Crackers)/Lorenz(Montana Miners) to win the scoring race or Earl Barret (High Hitterz) the sv% race. With a win by the United States and a loss by Belgium, the United States can still take third.