Subject: USA U-18 Team

Good luck k for the rest of the tourny. Keep up the good work.

Don't worry if you have a good player that I haven't added yet. I've been helping the Senior NT and U20 NT with scouting. I have a little more to send the U20 team tonight, and then I will update my scouting spreadsheet and add players once I finish (by Friday at the latest but hopefully by Wednesday).

Anyone interested in being an assistant manager should contact me. I mostly just need someone that could take over if necessary.

The United States won today 4-1 against Finland in the first game of the World Championships carried by an outstanding .974 SV% by the Slatington Serpents' Harley Shirley. Finland is always a tough team to play, so it was nice to get a win, especially one by a good margin. I would bet on Finland advancing to the next round, so this win should hopefully carry on to the next stage.

The group is fairly challenging this season with Finland and Slovakia. In addition, there are 3 really strong teams in the group that will combine with the United States' group in the qualifying round. Sweden isn't on the same level as the other teams in that group though they are still good enough that they would be a top team in group 4.

Canada lost 1-3 to Slovakia. It looks like Canada was conserving energy to try to win a later game and sneak into the next round. Canada seems to have weak goaltending this season assuming they aren't holding back a better goaltender for a future game. As a result of todays games, Canada should be forced to expend more energy against Finland since both teams lost today. Slovakia looks like they will be difficult for anyone to beat without good luck, so I think it is permissible to look at a reduced standings between the other 3 teams. In that case, the United States already has 3 of the possible 9 points (max 6 for any one team) between the remaining three teams. Barring any upset against Slovakia, that means that the U.S. would need to lose to Canada by more than 3+the amount Finland beats Canada by in regulation-difference in loss to Slovakia. The U.S. seems already in a good position to advance. 2 points in 2 games guarantees advacement, and even 1 point would require a very unlikely situation for the United States to face relegation.

Tomorrow the United States plays Slovakia while Canada plays Finland.

Congrats!!

The United States lost 0-3 today to Slovakia. I didn't want to gamble too much on a win in this game, so I ended up conserving energy and substituting for the starting goaltender. It seems that the U.S. actually won the tactics battle through the first 2 periods but failed to convert. I suppose it at least helped to keep the GD down (Slovakia only had 12 shots in the first 2 period combined).

Finland beat Canada 7-3 today. This means that the United States has to lose to Canada by more than 2 goals to fail to advance. It's important to make sure that Finland advances so that the United States has a win and 0 GD to start the next round rather than 0 points and -4 GD or worse. For Finland to face relegation, the margin of victory for Canada + the margin of Victory for Slovakia would need to be 7 or 8 (Finland also has a +4 GF advantage that Canada would need to overcome in the case of a combined margin of victory of 7). This is probably not too large to be prohibitively statistically unlikely, but Finland's odds are still quite favorable.

In the other group, Sweden and Hungary clinched the next round. A challenging German team might end up eliminated from contention in the first round.

Tomorrow the United States plays Canada to advance to the next round.

It was a very disappointing tournament this season, but the United States ultimately managed to avoid relegation.

The United States lost a game it should have won by a 3 goal margin, leading to a tie in points and GD with Canada. Canada advanced on a second tiebreaker GF advantage. The United States had a tactics disadvantage in the first but came out of it with a 1-1 tie. There was also a special teams disadvantage in the first. While those advantages disappeared in later periods, the U.S. ended up giving up 3 goals in the 3rd while failing to convert on 3 penalties, including a 5-3 powerplay.

The United States opened the relegation round with a 1-2 loss to Germany. The United States did a great job keeping penalties down in that game. Germany went ahead 2-1 with less than 2 minutes left in the game to take the win. For some reason, Germany has been a difficult opponent for the United States over the past few seasons.

In a game that looked like an easy win against a disappointing Spanish team, the United States barely managed a 2-1 regulation win with a goal in the last minute of the game. The U.S. won the tactics battle in the 1st and 3rd periods and lost in a scoreless 2nd period.

The win against Spain set up a win-to-avoid-relegation game against a strong Polish team. The United States opened with a tactics advantage (I successfully anticipated that Poland would use normal for the first time in the tournament) and a 2-1 lead. Early in the second, the lead expanded to 3-1. On verge of a seemingly guaranteed victory, Poland came back in the 3rd (the United States also won in tactics in this period) with 2 goals in the last 9 minutes of the game. The teams traded shots in a stressful and scoreless overtime, setting up a skills competition to decide relegation. The first 7 shooters failed to convert. Finally, Gordon Robertson scored in the second half of the 4th round to help the United States avoid relegation and remain in the top division for the 13th season in a row.

Over the course of the tournament, tactics went in the favor of the United States more often than naught, so I don't think I could have done much better in that area. I probably should have substituted a little more for tired players.

The sad part is that the United States would have gone into the qualifying round with 3 points (including 3 less points for Finland) and a decent GD with 1 less goal against against Canada or even 4 more goals for in the previous 2 games. instead of being set up for a good shot at the playoffs, the United States ended up going into sudden-death to avoid relegation in a relegation group that included 2 other strong teams.

One thing that I could have done better over this season is to have been more aggressive and stricter about players whose training was off. The inactivity for much of the season by the elite teams that folded really hurt the training of some players, and a few other players weren't at their best.

Offense was an area of weakness. While the defense and goaltending was very deep (this is the character of the U18 United States National Hockey Team at this point), the offense significantly dropped off after the top 4-5 forwards. This leads to heavily relying on and too quickly exhausting the key forwards. Unfortunately, this is a matter of luck and there's not much anyone could have done to prevent the depth problem.

I suppose next season is another opportunity. Sorry to anyone who was following the U18 team in the last game and ended up with heartburn.

tough season, no puck luck this time it seemed. Keep it up, I'm sure you'll do better next season.

The World Championships start once again today today. The United States has fared very well in exhibition games this season, losing only twice (4-5 to Italy and 1-3 with an empty net goal to the Czech Republic). This record was achieved with a handful of the best players sitting on the bench for most of the season (they already had enough chemistry). I accidentally scheduled one game against an U20 Estonian team, but the United States ended up winning. The United States starts the tournament on a three game win streak.

This season, the United States competes in a very balanced group. There is no unbeatable team nor any especially weak team in the group, though some countries are stronger or weaker in particular areas. The United States once again is known for its elite defense and goaltending.

The United States might also be a bit top heavy, which could cost it later in the tournament. The United States has a particular unique player that should be a very good weapon in various areas. The first defensive pairing might be the best one ever for the United States.

The United States plays Finland today, Russia tomorrow, and Sweden on Monday.

Good luck to all 3 U.S. national hockey teams!

The United States beat Finland today 4-2. Finland outshot the U.S. 35-29. The U.S. and Finland both won 30/60 faceoffs. The U.S. had a slight possession advantage and took 5 penalties to Finland's 2 penalties. No powerplay goals were scored. Kyle Toney, Brian Guevara, Russ Poole, and Shane Kinney scored for the United States. Harrison stopped 33 of 35 shots and is now on a 4 game winning streak.

Russia obliterated Sweden 5-0. At the very least, this should contributed to a GD advantage in case a tiebreaker is needed to avoid relegation.

The United States has had a habit of winning the first game of tournament and then struggling. Last season, the U.S. beat Finland 4-1 in the first game but then went on to the relegation round while Finland went on to the finals. The United States is off to a good start, but it is too soon to be too confident. With that said, a win against Russia tomorrow will clinch the Qualifying round, and the last game against Sweden should be the least challenging though far from a pushover.

If the United States advances to the Qualifying round, potential opponents include Hungary (a top team, though they lost badly today - apparently in a forfeit), France (a challenging but beatable team), Italy (they have some great players but lack depth and possibly a goaltender unless they haven't used their starter yet this season), and Slovenia (a competitive but beatable team).

Tomorrow the United States will play Russia, a similar team with slightly better shooting and slightly weaker defense. Monday will be against Sweden, a team with slightly better shooting and goaltending but much weaker defense.

The United States beat Russia 3-2 in regulation today, thereby clinching the qualifying round. Finland beat Sweden 1-0 in regulation. Vernon Polanco scored 2 goals, and Shane Kinney scored the game winner.

The United States will play Sweden tomorrow and Finland will play Russia. The United States will go into the next round with the maximum possible 6 points unless Sweden wins in regulation, the other game ends in regulation, and the combined GD improvement for Sweden and loss for the loser of the other game makes up the GD deficit (an unlikely 10-11 goals for Russia or 5-6 goals for Finland). In the worst case scenario, all three teams advancing from the group will have 3 points. I believe the United States should end up with 6 points though. From there, 1 win in the following 3 games should be enough to advance to the playoffs.

In the other group France beat Italy, and Hungary beat Slovenia. Tomorrow Slovenia plays Italy - Slovenia should win. Hungary vs France is a tossup. France has clinched the next round. To pass Italy, Slovenia would have to beat Italy by 6 goals - I don't think that will happen. Hungary can miss the next round if Slovenia wins in regulation, Hungary loses in regulation, and the combined GD change is 6-7 (if 6, then the team that scores more goals tomorrow wins). I think Slovenia will end up facing regulation, but it is not too unlikely that it could be Hungary facing the relegation round. In any case, the United States will probably face Italy in the next round and should be able to count on 3 points. Slovenia would offer another good chance in case the United States needed a second win. France and Hungary would be more challenging to beat. If Hungary advances, Italy's win against Hungary would leave only 6 points between France and Hungary, making it easier to keep up with and/or pass them.

In any case, the United States plays Sweden tomorrow afternoon.

The United States lost 6-2 to Sweden today. I rested the team (I played the 4th line that hadn't played yet for 45% of the match, played the backup for 2 periods, and played on normal) to an extent to conserve energy for the next round since the United States had already clinched the next round. The United States was actually winning 2-1 with a tactics advantage through the first 2 periods. In the third period Sweden somehow scored 5 goals in less than 10 minutes to take the win and advance. Despite starting the next round from a weaker starting point (all 6 teams have 3 points), I'm still happy to have conserved some energy, especially considering that I use a bit too much in the first 2 games.

In the next round, the United States will face Italy, France, and then Hungary. The game against Italy should be a win, though it's no guarantee. I don't intend to take them lightly tomorrow. At the very least, it would be nice to improve the goal differential as much as possible. 2 wins would be enough for the playoffs. 1 win would be enough with some luck.

The United States won 6-1 against Italy yesterday in a must-win game. While the United States is in first at the moment, the other 2 group 4 teams are likely to beat this season's Italian team and started with the same amount of points. The remaining 2 teams are the best in the group. Another win or at least 1-2 points will be necessary to advance to the playoffs.

The United States plays France this afternoon.

I'm moving this week, so finalizing the roster will take longer than I would like. I should be able to finish before Saturday. Right now, I have 200-250 more players to process onto my spreadsheet before I make the final selections. If you have a good player that is not yet on the roster, don't worry about it quite yet.

The United States earned a big win against Latvia today 3-2.

I was a bit discouraged after pulling a killer group including Slovakia and Germany. Even though the U.S. held serve in a easily winnable game against Austria, the U.S. entered the qualifying round with 0 points and proceeded to face and lose to one of the strongest teams - the Czech Republic.

The United States cannot catch the Czech Republic or Germany. Slovakia will remain ahead of the U.S. unless Slovakia loses in regulation, the U.S. wins, and U.S. also makes up a 5 point GD deficit where Slovakia will likely hold the next GF tiebreaker after scoring 8 goals today. With that said, the U.S. plays Belarus tomorrow. With a win, the U.S. would jump ahead of Belarus. Belarus is the weakest team in the group (better on offense but weaker on defense and especially in goal compared to the U.S.). With today's win, the U.S. caught up to Latvia in points and GD, though Latvia still has a 5 GF lead. Basically, to advance to the playoffs in the top division, the U.S. just has to beat Belarus and get a better result in points or GD than Latvia. Latvia plays Slovakia, so a Latvian regulation win also means a small chance to pass Slovakia.

After a few seasons of going into the qualifying round with a strong position and fizzling out, maybe the United States can eke its way into the playoffs this season after a weaker start.

If the U.S. can sneak into 4th, then it looks like Canada would be the opponent, and Canada looks like another team that the U.S. could beat. From there, the U.S. would hopefully avoid Hungary and play a much better rested team in a winnable but difficult match.

A while back, an exhausted and mediocre Portuguese team managed to win the tournament, so anything's possible. Most team's are close enough that luck with tactics and the RNG can offset any apparent advantage.

I just noticed that 7 of the 8 major hockey countries from the real world are in the qualifying round this time around. Only Sweden missed out, though they are still in the top division facing relegation.