Subject: USA U-18 Team

Good Luck.

Because I spent the season building chemistry for next season's 17 year olds, the 18 year olds this season lack chemistry. In addition, the team wasn't very strong in the first place (especially in goal). My plan for avoiding relegation is to throw the first 3 games to save energy. This should be enough to make the U.S. competitive with the teams that end up in the relegation round. Generally, I should be able to catch up to other teams by 4-5 points per day for 3 days. I might consider trying to beat Croatia on the third day depending on how things play out.

I am rooting for Austria, Belarus, and Sweden to lose in this round. Today Belarus lost (and should continue to lose), Sweden lost (they have a decent team but play in a group of death), and Austria won (however, it wouldn't be the end of the world to end up facing Latvia or Spain in the relegation round - they are at about the same level as Sweden).

I decided to try to win a winnable game against Croatia today rather than conserving energy for better odds in the relegation round. The United States ended up winning 2-1. Due to conserving energy, the United States managed to pass Croatia in overall team strength. This season is officially a success. I don't have to spend an additional season trying to promote back to the top division in time to make use of the banked chemistry. The United States will be very competitive next season. In addition, due to avoiding relegation and spending the next season in division I, the United States will be competitive while being more likely to play against beatable teams. Ultimately, the banked chemistry will help mostly in the earlier games of the tournament (as chemistry tends to reach 100% by the playoffs). In addition, since the team won't be gaining chemistry while expending energy, team strength will fall at a faster rate than usual. Luckily, in addition to the banked chemistry, next season's team will be much stronger (especially since this season's best starting goaltender will return for a second season).

Going forward, the United States will be in a qualifying round group with France (6), Germany (3), the Czech Republic (6), Hungary (3), and Switzerland (0). You generally need 6-9 points to make the playoffs. That almost certainly won't happen as the Czech Republic and Hungary who the United States will need to play are 2 of the strongest teams (the Czech Republic doesn't look too bad, but they sometimes have the depth to rest players in the first round).

If the United States plays Switzerland (or the Czech Republic if their roster from today is representative of their likely roster for tomorrow), I might try to win. Otherwise, I'm tempted to just use the next 2-3 games to give the 16-17 year olds currently on the 4th and 5th lines a little more chemistry.

Sounds good, thanks for all the updates.

The United States will play Switzerland tomorrow, so I will at least take tomorrow seriously. The game against Switzerland is a must-win game. I'll re-evaluate the United States' chances at the playoffs after tomorrow's game. There's a good chance that Hungary could end up clinching early and decide to play on very low in the final game of this round, giving the United States a shot at stealing a win.

Actually, I'm mistaken - the Czech Republic is the team that is most likely to clinch early (it's not impossible that they could start resting after reaching 9 points though). Hungary only has 3 points and will have to play two challenging teams in France and Germany. Even so, I hope that one or both end up clinching early to the benefit of the United States.

The United States beat Switzerland 2-1 today in overtime (George Kauffman scored with 5 seconds left until a shootout). The United States won the tactics battle and significantly outshot Switzerland. Switzerland's goalie stole a point and gave them a chance to win.

All of the 4 other teams in the group have 6 points now. The United States probably needs to win both remaining games to advance (in a season where I had no expectations to do anything other than avoid relegation). Tomorrow's game against the Czech Republic will be a challenge, but it is probably winnable. Hopefully Hungary will then win tomorrow and rest against the United States.

The United States has been eliminated. It's not unexpected given the United States' handicap/weak roster and the strength of the group. I'm happy to have even made it this far after spending the season training next season's team.

I will use the final game to train the 16-17 year olds on the roster as much as possible.

Good work this season! I am excited already about next season's team.

Thanks! I'm looking forward to next season as well!

Good job. Hopefully this pays off big time next season.

Thanks! I hope so too! Even if it doesn't, next season's roster will reach 100% early which will allow me to start developing the chemistry of the team comprised of the current 16 year olds early.

It looks like the United States has an insane group in the preliminary round this season. Hungary tends to be a top team (though they have be known to rest players when possible), Latvia tends to be a strong team that often makes the qualification round, and Finland used to be a top team despite recently returning from demotion. Luckily, the United States will be primarily benefit from the bonus in this first round against these teams. In the second round, the U.S. would face 3 teams from the weakest group. Spain and Austria haven't been especially strong recently, Canada has been successful recently but doesn't necessarily tend to have the deepest team, and France tends to be a strong team that has been especially successful recently. Of course, these trends won't necessarily hold up for this particular season. Perhaps Austria will have an elite team and Hungary will be weaker due to lacking a decent goaltender or something.

I will be reviewing my scouting over the next week, but I doubt that I will be making many changes to the starting roster. There are 1-3 players that might need to have their training improved, but nobody that I've yet determined to give up on. I will be adding 4 lines (instead of 2 like I used to) of 17 year olds to do the same thing that I did last season once I've finalized last season team. I will also add the 6 best 18 year olds not yet on the starting roster (unless there is a new 17 year old that is better at a particular position) for the bench. The last spot will go to the presumptive starting goaltender for the 16 year old class.

The U20 NT manager will be added as the assistant once again.

I put it off a bit, but I went through and collected all of the scouting information I have onto my spreadsheet. I just have to sort through it now and eliminate players. Again, the starting roster shouldn't change much if at all.

The roster is set. It includes the 5 best lines of players as of the end of the season, the 4 best lines of 17 years olds (who will be able to get some playing time in a few weeks), the 2 best goaltenders, the 2 best 17 year old goaltenders, and the best 16 year old goaltender.

I made one change to the planned starting roster: I ended up replacing a player who played as a 16 year old last season with a better 18 year old (the first player remains on the roster as a prospect for next season though).