Subject: USA U-18 Team

Go for it.

you've done a great job a managing the U18 team in the past. I say go for it. You know our team better than anyone else, so go for it!

I think I will give the chemistry idea a try. The 1-3 players that start the WCH with 100 chemistry (because they were good enough to start as 17 year olds) as opposed to 60 are always a significant asset. Getting many more of these types of players will make a big difference. I might delay the plan if the prospect pool for next season looks particularly strong, but I am leaning towards going through with the idea starting next season.

I will at least post a list of the 18 year olds that would have made the team next season and generally ensure this plan doesn't interfere with the U20 team in the future. Once again, the elite players with a potential future on the senior national hockey team would still at least be called up for the training bonus.

Sounds good. Let's rock and roll!

The United States won its first game against Russia 3-2 yesterday in the group of death. The gauntlet continues today against a heavily favored Czech team. Serbia scored a major 5-1 upset against the Czech Republic, probably one of the favorites to win the tournament on paper, yesterday.

Going forward, 2 more points in the remaining 2 games will guarantee advancement. With 1 more point, Russia would need to win in regulation today, the Czech Republic would need to win in overtime tomorrow, the U.S. would need to lose to Serbia in regulation tomorrow, and the U.S. would need to lose the GD and/or GF tiebreakers to miss the next round. With a regulation loss to the Czech Republic, advancement would generally come down to performance on the final day. While Serbia is the weakest team in the group of death, they are still a very strong team that cannot be taken lightly on that final day.

If the United States advances, I would bet on the 3 points against Russia counting in the next round.

After losing against the Czech Republic 5-2, the U.S. U18 NT went into today in a 4-way tie. Luckily, the U.S. ended up winning 4-1 against Serbia, mostly due to an outstanding performance by the Michalovce Wild Hogs' Buster Cusik in net. He gave up only 1 goal on 38 shots.

The next 3 games will be against Latvia, Belarus, and then Hungary. Latvia is about even with the U.S. (slightly weaker goaltending and slightly better shooting). Belarus should be easy to beat (though it is not unheard of for such a team to have a lucky game or two). Hungary will be a challenge, but there is a good chance they will clinch the playoffs before their matchup with the U.S. and could end up resting for that game.

The U.S. U18 NT can clinch the playoffs with 5 more points (the team starts with 3 points from the win against Russia). 1 win should be enough to have a good chance at advancing.

Due to my plans for next season, I consider this tournament a success for having avoided the relegation round since the U.S. will likely face relegation next season with the chemistry strategy. I'd like to at least make the playoffs now that there is an opportunity to do so.

A lot of good teams ended up in the relegation round. The U.S. will not have to face Finland or Germany in the playoffs. That leaves Slovakia as the only major threat in the other group. When it comes to seeding for the playoffs, if that becomes a concern, avoid Slovakia in the first round will be my primary goal. If Finland demotes, the U.S. would have the fourth longest active streak of staying in the top division.

Awesome work! Keep it up!

Thank you!

On Tuesday, the United States lost 2-0 (the second goal was an empty net goal) against Latvia. Buster Cusik did his best to keep the team in the game, but the offense failed to support him this time.

Today, the United States overwhelmed Belarus 6-0. In past seasons, there have been easily winnable games that the U.S. ended up losing due to bad luck, so I'm happy that this game went well.

The U.S. is in 3rd place in the group today (the top 4 advance). Unfortunately, the U.S. will very likely end up in 5th place without some luck tomorrow. Tomorrow's opponent is the best team in the group, Hungary. On top of that, Hungary is currently in 5th place and will be hungry to avoid missing the playoffs. In addition, Russia (4th place) will play Belarus tomorrow and will very likely win. In order to advance to the playoffs for the first time in a while, the U.S. will need to earn at least 1 points against Hungary (an overtime loss will suffice due to the GD tiebreaker). Alternatively, Russia would need to lose in regulation. The U.S. needs to hold onto 3rd place to avoid facing Slovakia. The other team in group 2 that is worrisome is France, but they are currently in 6th place. By making the playoffs, the U.S. would take a place from Russia or Hungary, eliminating one of the serious contenders from group 1. By holding 3rd place, the other of those countries would likely be forced to face Slovakia in the first round. If the U.S. could advance to the 2nd round of the playoffs, it would very likely face the Czech Republic. The U.S. would need to get lucky (against them or else with the result of the Czech Republic's first round matchup). This luck would be followed up by a likely matchup with Slovakia in the finals. If the U.S. were to end up in 4th place, it would have to face Slovakia in the first round (who might be slightly more beatable than the Czech Republic), there would be a matchup with the Czech Republic, Russia, or Hungary in the finals.

To sum all of the above up, the U.S. will need to get lucky with 3/4 of the remaining games to win it all. The best realistic result possible is probably the bronze medal. More realistically, the United States is probably looking at contending for best non-playoff team. I'll still hope for the best against Hungary tomorrow and see what I can come up with. Hungary has similar depth on offense and only slightly better goaltending. Its advantage rests primarily in shooting and defense. With the way Buster Cusik has been playing, especially coming off a shutout, I can see Cusik negating much of their advantage and allowing the U.S. to sneak out a win or a tie in regulation in a low scoring game. In addition, while Hungary looks strong on paper, they were demolished by Russia, shutout by the Czech Republic, and got lucky in a shootout against Latvia. They won the games they should against Belarus and Bulgaria, but they've underperformed for a team that looked like a frontrunner.

The United States lost 3-4 in a shootout today, thus making the playoffs in the top division for the first time since season 26.

While setting up the lineup last night, I checked the Hungarian U18 forum and past few games and noticed that they were saving energy by playing on lower game importance, resting key players and playing weaker lines. It didn't really change my strategy though since this was a must not-lose-in-regulation game. Also, they were clearly going to go all out today anyway. I did my best to work in some players that hadn't played yet to compensate for the tired players, but realistically, the United States got lucky today. I've used a similar strategy in the past, playing on very low while resting key players after clinching early or when playing a particularly tough opponent that the U.S. did not need to beat to advance, only to end up losing a key game against an opponent that the U.S. should have easily beaten. To some extent, no matter what strategies you try, and no matter how much of an advantage you have (at least for U18 teams - regular teams can be good enough to avoid this sort of loss), the RNG will often foil you or give you an unexpected win.

By beating Hungary, the U.S. eliminated a strong opponent in the playoffs (since Russia won as expected against Belarus). The U.S. U18 NT was actually winning 3-1 after 2.5 periods, so it's too bad that the team missed out on winning and taking 2nd place for a much better matchup. Hungary would have been the favorite to win it all due to their depth and strategy if they had advanced.

The United States will face a difficult opponent, Slovakia, in the first round. Luckily, the United States will however avoid 3 of the best 4 teams in the playoffs in the second round if it manages to get lucky again tomorrow. The U.S. U18 NT would have a solid chance against Latvia or Austria in two days. With another win, the U.S. would be a heavy underdog unless Canada somehow managed to pull through a difficult bracket.

Good luck to the U.S. U20 NT in tomorrow's promotion game and to the U.S. Senior NT. It looks like the U.S. U20 NT even pulled a good opponent.

Congrats, and great work!

Thank you!

Finland demoted, so the United States has now the longest active streak of participation in the top division after the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Russia.

In division I, the 2 best teams (Poland and Croatia) will have a chance to promote to the top division. This could be helpful for clearing the competition in 2 seasons if the U.S. ends up demoting next season.

Congrats! Keep up the great work!