Subject: USA U-18 Team

It's something I've though about. If line matchups actually matter, that should theoretically ensure that the matchups don't change over the course of the game.

I think this is worth trying or looking into, but I have to weigh it against emphasizing the few elite (relative to the players on other U18 national teams) players on the team. In addition, I've been using three lines. I wasn't confident enough in the 4th or 5th line to use them too much earlier, though I will be making some substitutions for tired players in upcoming games.

Yeah, I was thinking of trying it. It seems like it could work to an advantage, especially if one line is a lot better than the opponent's, but it seems like it also has the possibility to bite you in the ass if one of their lines can whoop on your line.

Also, damn what happened to the penalty kill against Slovenia? 3PP goals seems like a lot. And one SH goal too...

The United States was lucky to keep it a close game taking 5 penalties and 3 more than Slovenia.

On the first penalty, the most important penalty killer was in the box.

The SHG is a matter of luck, though the United States got one itself earlier in the game.

The United States hasn't given up more than 2 powerplay goals in any other game this season. The best players possible are on the penalty kill.

Maybe Slovenia extremely strong shooting was what made the difference.

In the past, I've tried splitting up the best forwards from the best defensemen to get better matchups and deal with that problem, but it didn't seem to work very well. I think that the elite defensemen were playing with weaker forwards that contributed less on defense, and the elite forwards played with weaker defensemen that couldn't set up plays as well. The result was 2 average lines.

After winning the first two games against Serbia and Portugal, the United States has lost two games by one goal off a goal in the last 10 minutes. The first games caused the U.S. to go into the next round with only 2 points despite a strong first round. The second one made the remaining two games must win games.

The game against Portugal was close, and the U.S. won 2-1 in a shootout. Portugal's once again had a strong tournament despite having goaltending.

Against Hungary, the United States fell behind and tied the game, once at 1 and once at 3, only to end up losing.

Against Slovenia, the U.S. took the lead on a shorthanded goal early in the game but quickly gave up a power play goal. Newell created a 2-1 lead, but Slovenia evened the score with a SHG of their own. Newell gave the U.S. another lead, but Slovenia scored twice to take the lead ten minutes later. Jadyn Peterson, the star of the team so far in this tournament, evened the score quickly, but Slovenia scored the game winner with about 5 minutes left. Slovenia had much stronger goaltender and shooting and should have won, but it was a game the U.S. could have won and almost did win. The U.S. won on tactics in the last two periods and was dominating in shots for that period but failed to convert them into the win.

Luckily, the losses had minimal GD penalties, so the United States is very close to the other teams in case it comes down to GD, if the United States can string together 4-6 points in the last 2 games against Germany and then Slovakia (0 points so far).

I've reshuffled the lineup for today, taking into account fatigue. The original starting goaltender will be back for tomorrow, greatly improving the U.S. goaltending on paper (though Rubin has done a great job for the U.S. so far).

It seems my ploy of playing breaking up of play through all the exhibitions has worked against most of the teams the U.S. has played, other than Slovenia. It might have been more effective to use offense or active forechecking though.

Good luck to the U20 and senior teams today!

well that game against Germany was not needed.

The United States won what amounted to an exhibition against Slovakia today 2-1, but it was too little too late. The U.S. needed to maintain one of its leads against Slovenia to advance. A regulation win against Germany would have done the trick, but that apparently wasn't in the cards.

I played the rest of the players that haven't played a game today and dropped the third line from yesterday. This will register them on the U18 statistics page to more easily be reviewed by the U20 manager in the future.

Weigold returned from his injury and made 32 saves on 33 shots. He went into the tournament with a chemistry of about 96. Rubin was forced to start with a chemistry of about 30. Players generally gained about 10 per game on very high. I could have played Rubin more in order to prepare him to take half of the games, but I wanted to go into the tournament with goaltending (especially for the first 3 games to avoid the relegation group) that would be as strong as possible given the quality of goaltenders on many of the other teams. Rubin would have caught up due to Weigold's fatigue to be viable around game 5 or 6.

It seems that Serbia and Bulgaria ended up relegating. Russia and the Czech Republic will return next year. If they fall in ranking and get put into a group as the 13-16 team, their groups could be very tough next season. It's also surprising to see Slovakia missed the playoffs.

Oscar Hopkins probably has a future with the senior team. On his own, he made the U.S. defense one of the best in the tournament instead of one of the weaker ones. Jadyn Peterson has great potential and was very effective for the U.S. this season. He was one of the top 10 in the tournament. There's also the trio of promising LW's: Starr, Hansen, and Harvey. It's encouraging that a lot of players on the team this season are getting playing time for their teams. I plan to put Starr on my fourth line next season.

The United States will now have 3 strong tactics to use for next season.

A long time ago, when the U.S. first promoted to the top division, I had an idea to play only 17 year olds for a season so they would have 100% chemistry at the start of the next season's WCH. These players would hit 100% chemistry early in the next season, allowing the 17 year olds of the next season to play the exhibitions, carrying on the bonus chemistry for a few season (after a while, the advantage would disappear). The only problem is that the U.S. would almost definitely demote the first season. It would have a strong chance, but no guarantee of promoting the next season (the results are too random to ensure too much confidence as seen by some of the results for top teams this season). If all of that went well, the current 15 year olds would be especially strong competing in three seasons. It would help if they could also be started in regular games to gain experience. I'm mentioning this idea for the purpose of discussion, though I still have doubts and wouldn't likely try it. In the first season in the top division, I opted to try to win with the current 18 year olds, and the U.S. ended up making the playoffs.

Good luck to the senior and U20 teams tomorrow. The U20 team has a 50% chance of returning to the top division.

I am in the process of adding the players from my scouting history onto my spreadsheet. I am about halfway done. I should finish by the end of the night or possibly tomorrow night. It is likely but not guaranteed that players currently on the team will remain on the team. Good players that are not yet added to the time still have a chance - I just need to finish organizing all of my scouting information. There are a few 900-1,000 OR players that would need significant work with their training to be added but could still be considered.

The first day of the World Championships is today.

Pucknut and I were able to cover all of the scouting of most of the other teams that the United States will and could face in the first two rounds. I finished scouting 16 year olds and 17 year olds very early this season, allowing me to cover a few of the other teams myself. To some extent, I've probably just scouted a lot of the best 16 year olds and 17 year olds in the past two seasons. One the other hand, with so many of the top producers folding, even though a few other teams have improved from minor to major producers of talent, the talent pool may be shrinking for the future (though that may be as true of other countries).

Anyway, the opponents in the preliminary round include Poland, Portugal, and Denmark. The USA and Poland are clearly the two better teams in the group and will probably be two of the better teams in the tournament. Even so, Portugal has been very successful in the past, even winning it all once, with seemingly average rosters. In addition, upsets are quite common - the United States has been on both sides.

Anyway, going into the tournament, based on last weeks data:

Goaltending:
USA: 168
Poland: 163
Denmark: 136
Portugal: 126
The advantage is clear, though it wouldn't be surprising if one of the bottom two teams holds an ace that didn't play for all exhibition games. If not, this could be the difference for the USA.

Defense:
Poland: 185
USA: 183
Portugal: 175
Denmark: 173
Defense is a lot closer, though it is a relative strength for the USA.

Offense:
Poland: 173
USA: 163
Portugal: 156
Denmark; 155
Offense is a relative weakness for the USA, though it is still good enough relative to Portugal and Denmark.

Shooting:
USA: 133
Poland: 127
Denmark: 115
Portugal: 114
Shooting, along with goaltending, is the biggest strength of the USA.

Total:
USA: 162
Poland: 162
Denmark: 145
Portugal: 143
You can expect these numbers to rise by about 5 by the end of the games this week. That probably puts the USA and Poland among the major, if not top, contenders.

Today's game is probably the most important in the preliminary round because both teams are likely to advance. That means that this game will count for the next round. In addition, the loser of the other game in the group could very well face the relegation round.

The United States is in group 1. In the qualifying round, the top 3 teams from group 1 will play the top 3 teams from group 4, and all games played between the teams that advance will count towards this round as well. Games played against teams that go to the relegation round will not count. Group 4 consists of Hungary (170), Russia (171), Germany (163), and Spain (148). As you can see, most of these (as of right now, barring improvements today) would all be challenging opponents. Hopefully the United States can clinch early and earn points for the next round over the next 3 games.

Good luck to the U20 USA and Senior USA national teams as well!

I am going through my scouting history to make the final additions tonight. There are about 500 players to add to my spreadsheet. I will need to add everyone (it is best done on the same day for consistency), organize them, make initial cuts, and then make final cuts.

Don't worry if you have a good player (especially 900+ OR with 80+ EQ, 5+ CL, and 14+ training/regeneration) that is not yet on the team.

Keep an eye on the Detroit Red Wings, as a bunch of their players will go on the market by the end of next week.

An update: I finished adding all of the players I scouted that are 18 and under to my spreadsheet. I only have to adjust some formatting, make initial cuts, make final cuts, and then add everyone. Adding players to the spreadsheet is the most time consuming step, and it is already done.

I definitely liked all players already on the team.

The Detroit Red Wings players won't necessarily be key starters this year or when they turn 18, but they are all good enough that I want them available on the market when the team folds so they are available for U.S. NT's going forward. I'll talk about what I expect their roles to be for the U.S. NT now and in the future later today.

The roster is set. The 18 year olds that are called up in addition to Oglesby and Glass will be the starters this season. The top two lines are still comprised of the best 17 year olds from last season's team.

How does this season's team look?

Extremely promising.

When I started, I struggled to get a team full of 800+ OR players. 900+ OR players were rare, and there might be 1 or 2 above 1,000 OR at the start of some seasons. This season, all but one starter is above 900 OR at the start of the season, and that player is arguably as good as a 900+ OR due to the training ratio used. There are 8 1,000+ OR players on the team. There is also one player that could be a candidate for the best U18 player in the world. That player will be approaching 1,400 OR by the end of the season.

There are two elite goaltenders on the team, so I will be able to use both to conserve more energy in goal. The third string and 17 year old goaltenders are themselves as good as starters from weaker years.

Every single defenseman is good enough to have been a first line player in past seasons. The top two lines are especially elite.

Offense looks solid. The fourth line players could be on the second line in weaker seasons. There is only one especially elite player on offense though.

Ernesto Glass will be about as good next season as Lynn Pace is this season.


As for opponents, Denmark got lucky last season and has some good players this season, but the United States looks a little deeper. Canada, led by canucks357 this season, looks about the same as Denmark. Germany is a little deeper than the United States. This is just from looking at the player lists for the teams (later additions are not impossible and high OR players can be trained poorly). pucknut is helping me with scouting. Last season, I finished scouting U.S. players early and was able to cover one of the other teams myself; pucknut and I were able to cover all of the important teams last season.

Upsets do happen quite often, but comparing this team to past seasons, this might be one of the best U.S. U18 NT's, and I wouldn't be surprised for the United States to be one of the top 8 teams.