PowerPlay Magazine

Greetings all,

We had 91 entries into the PPM 2015 NHL Playoffs Challenge vying for great prizes. Below you'll find a compendium of the predictions from those who entered. Time will tell how smart PPM managers are at predicting this season's NHL playoffs.

Quarterfinals

STL 73% vs. MIN 27%
NSH 31% vs. CHI 69%

ANA 85% vs. WPG 15%
VAN 62% vs. CGY 38%

MTL 71% vs. OTT 29%
TBL 75% vs. DET 25%

NYR 89% vs. PIT 11%
WSH 58% vs. NYI 42%

Commentary:
PPMers predict one upset in the first round with the Chicago Blackhawks edging the Predators. However, Vegas gave the odds to Chicago as well so this is not necessarily an upset in regards to the odds, but rather in regards to the rankings. The most predictable series are those with the conference champion (NYR and ANA) taking the win. Playing the odds, PPMers predict STL vs. CHI, ANA vs. VAN, MTL vs. TBL and NYR vs. WSH in the divisional finals (conference semi-finals).

Semi-finals

Here we assume all teams remain and simply predict who will emerge victorious from each division to meet in the respective conference finals.

Central: CHI (45%) > STL (37%) > NSH (14%) > MIN (3%)
Pacific: ANA (73%) > VAN (12%) > CGY (9%) > WPG (7%)
Atlantic: TBL (41%) > MTL (40%) > DET (13%) > OTT (7%)
Metrop.: NYR (71%) > WSH (11%) > NYI (10%) > PIT (8%)

Commentary:
It appears NYR and ANA should have it easy through to the conference final according to the predictions while CHI will have a tough battle with STL and TBL vs. MTL comes down to a coin toss. Interestingly, managers predict NSH and DET not to win round 1, but those that did suspect they have a better chance at advancing than VAN and WSH whom are predicted to win their first round series.

Conference finals

Again, all teams remain with the odds below predicting who will advance to the Stanley Cup.

West: CHI (27%) > ANA (26%) > STL (23%) > NSH (13%) > VAN (5%) > CGY (3%) > MIN (1%) > WPG (0%)
East: NYR (51%) > MTL (18%) > TBL (9%) > WSH (7%) > NYI (5%) > DET (4%), PIT (4%) > OTT (2%)

Commentary:
It appears there is a heavy favourite in the east in the New York Rangers. The west is much closer with three teams (CHI, ANA, STL) all considered viable options to make the Stanley Cup final from the west.

Stanley Cup Final

Here we go, the odds of each team winning the cup according to 91 PPM managers.

NYR - 32%
ANA - 13%
MTL - 13%
CHI -  12%
STL -   8%
TBL -   4% 
NSH -   4%
NYI -    3% 
PIT -    3%
VAN -   2%
WSH -  2%
DET -   1%
MIN -   1%
CGY -   0%
WPG -  0%
OTT -   0%

Commentary:
Well, Penguins fans are loyal (or perhaps delusional). Despite an 11% vote to win round 1, "the Pens" had 8% support to win their division, 4% support to win the east and 3% support to win the cup. Despite being a mere 18% chance at winning the east, those that picked "the Habs" (MTL) to advance, roughly 3 in 4 took them for the final with 13% cup odds. Despite being the clear favourite at roughly 3:1 over the next-closest team, approximately 1 in 3 people think the Rangers will make the final but lose. Also, excluding Montreal, it appears nobody thinks the Canadian teams will fare well with Vancouver representing 2% cup winners and the other three Canadian teams fetching no votes among them.

I look forward to see how this plays out. I'll post the rankings after each round so stay tuned in two-weeks time!

-Scott