Subject: Questions & Answers

U are right. If PPM soccer ME is pure Random than stronger teams will not win in such number of cases, and weaker teams will not lose so much. If ME is Random than all teams will have the same chance to win their game(s), but this is obviously not the case.

Random is a computational device designed to generate a sequence of numbers or symbols that lack any pattern. In this game you can clearly see that there is at least some pattern, and therefore you can't say it's a random. Closely connected, therefore, with the concepts of chance, probability, and information entropy, randomness implies a lack of predictability.

People tends to mislead Random with luck and/or chance. For example, the rolling of a fair six-sided die in neutral conditions may be said to produce random results, because one can't compute, before a roll, what number will show up. However, the probability of rolling any one of the six roll-able numbers can be calculated, assuming that each is equally likely. Or to say in PPM manner every team have some chance to win in particular match but the odds for any outcome are not the same.

People just mislead term random, with luck, chance. In what I agree with them is that there is a lot of chance for weaker teams to get better results against stronger ones which probably should be corrected. And I strongly believe that people just really don't know what term Random really means, but they tend to swap it in their minds with chance and/or luck.

Going back to PPM Ice Hockey. There is also Random there, but because in Hockey teams have much more shoots compared to football and bigger results appear (ie 7-6, 4-2 which are unlikely results in football) there is much less chance to lose or draw a match when you are much better than your opponent. In football, where we have much less shoots and tends to have results with less goals (1-0, 2-1), it's easy to have more 'unwanted' results and weaker teams seems to have more chances to get a draw or a win against stronger ones. Maybe that part of engine, which is I suppose similar to Hockey one, should be changed in same manner to raise chances for better players to score and for weaker to miss a goal, and this will solve a lot of problems for the PPM Team and PPM Users.

True.

Also, it's important to keep in mind that a strong team may have an overall better strength, but the weaker team could in fact have a very good player with individual skill. If that player finds himself shooting more than the weaker guys, then the weak teams "chance" of scoring is actually a lot higher than any of the regular members of the team.

Now take a strong forward on a weak team going up against a strong teams right defense who happens to be weak... the odds are against the strong team, not the other way round as many would believe.

This is why the game results are the sum of hundreds of individual calculations that make up an entire game.

In hockey it is even more interesting, because we have more than 1 line, and you then have strong players against weak 3rd line defenders and a strong goalie (for example), and the odds become fairly balanced.

So when a weak team scores goals, don't think of it as a "weak" team, think of it as an overall weak team who managed to score goals by individual events that increased their chance at that point of the game.

This is what I'm trying to say, maybe some more tweak to tactics where we can say to our players to shoot or to pass more. I see that all players tend to shoot a lot, and lot of them don't have good 'active shooting skills' (when I say active shooting skills I mean on mixture of shooting, technique and whatever it takes to make a good shot), so making a tactics for individual players where we can instruct our players to pass or to shot, or even to tell them to not go up-field so much and not to cross the ball or to cross it (I saw a dozen of times than my CDs are going to make a cross, which is totally insane for my point of view of football) will help a lot.
More active users than will have a lot of advantage against those ones who are not so active, but that should be a main point to PPM Team. Making more active users will surely bring them more PRO users (if U log almost every day. than U tend to buy PRO package more often). That should be PPM Team politics in a long run.

Totaly agree with tactics for individual players! For us who know the game that would be perfect. But they afraied that the game would be to complicated from the begining. I am just guesing.

If they think that it will be complicated, it's easy to make two kind of tactics which U can choose depending if U are more or less active. Simple tactics which will be the same as it is now, and Advances tactics which will be with individual orders... It's easy to make it...

Well, I can make a statement, just lile U. There IS random. So what? The problem is none of us can prove it, although I have weird results, which U can't complain for sure...

Random means all the events have the exact same probability.. (50-50).
Which is not the case, otherwise in the end of the league all teams would be pretty closer to each other in points.

If you are in front of a keeper you have for exemple 70% of chances to score and 30% to miss. You can view like you have 10 papers, 7 telling you will score and 3 telling you will miss and you can only pick one paper, the chances to pick one telling you scored are higher, but you can have bad luck and choose the wrong one

what trueblue is saying is not just guessing. He is just paraphrasing what I have stated on the forums before. Now it's just a question whether you believe me or not.

2-5-3 might sound crazy, but if you look that formation, then you again might,see that its almost 4-3-3, those wingbacks are just based bit too high,and thats why they are market midfielders.With that formation, an idea was to to trough the middle(coz i did not have good wingers) and it works

If you think barcelona, then they formition on paper could be 2-7-1 or something Think out of the box, dear Jehki

U and most of the people are just misjudging the term RANDOM.

If Random was introduced in PPM than the worst team and the best one, after a series of matches will be the same in points, which is clearly not the case. Here we deal with the term called CHANCE.

For better understanding I will try to give U an example: The rolling of a fair six-sided die in neutral conditions may be said to produce random results, because one can't compute, before a roll, what number will show up. However, the probability of rolling any one of the six roll-able numbers can be calculated, assuming that each is equally likely.
Now, if Chelsea for example plays against Conference side Forest Green, they would win in 99 of 100 matches, but in just one Forest Green will grab a point, or three. That's not Random, that's chance...

I hope that U understand now the terms of chance and random, and that they are not the same, not at all!

Haha... Show me the line up for 2-7-1.

I imagine 2-7-1 would look more like 2-2-3-2-1 on the field, with 2 defenders, 2 midfield defense, 3 midfield, 2 midfield attack and 1 striker.

Forest Green will grab a point or three because of a better play in that particular game. You can divide that game in million little situations, and the reason why Forest Green won would be because of winning most of those situations (or at least some) despite the fact that the opposing team is stronger "on the paper". There is no random in real life football, the teams have 100% control over the game. Some may call that luck, but if a team has won, it has been better in some aspects of the game. Same could be applied to PPM, unfortunatley we have no power of controlling those very little aspects, so it can't be called chance as you said.

Noone's saying that a game is a complete 50/50 random- this is not a lottery, but a management game. We are saying that random factors controlling every aspect of the game are too big in numbers, and the dispersion should be reduced. I really don't know the numbers or the principles of engine, but, for example, if a striker with skill proportions 60-40-40-30-20 finds himself in a scoring position against a keeper with skills 40-15-15-15-15 and his chance for scoring goal is generated using, let's say, 60% for scoring and 40% for not scoring, maybe it's wise to narrow down the random factor to, let's say, 70% to 30%. It shouldn't be that hard to implement little changes like that, but it could put an end to some of those ridiculous results we're having.

I can see what you are meaning! But that it not used any modern football game. cause there is allways sidedefenders!

Yep, you are right. I have also chance to win in lottery. Where it is based then? Good luck? Is it same as random?

I understand your point (and Vlady's), but still, when you create a match engine, there are random function used. There is no chance function available (AFAIK) unless you program that function by your self.

Let's say that team A is 80 stars strong and team B is 50 stars strong i.e. team A gets 80 balls in lottery bowl and team B gets 50 balls. Then match engine simulates the game and scoring chance is generated to team B. Then match engine rolls the dice and picks up the ball, and team B ball is picked up, o/ team B scores!!

Is there random? I see that there is random and IMO random === chance here.