Subject: General Sponsorship Offers

GS: 3, 5 (accepted)
TV: ?, 1, 1 (error on first, never received offer)

President's choice for TV deal was a one star (as in 4th choice.)

I disagree PMullings.
The HR effects the size of the offer whatever it will be between 1 and 5 stars. To have HR also effect which star value you get would compound the effect from the HR facility. If that were the case why not just make the HR building increase the income and not have any variable effect at all.
No, my feeling is the 1 to 5 stars is equal for everyone and adds a bit of luck to it, but not so much that it would ruin you if you got 1.

Looking at HR:TeamOR Ratio

Season 2 End Contracts
Ratio = 1:47 (lvl4/190.2OTR)
Gen was 5Star (2nd Offer) / TV was 4Star (3rd Offer)

Season 3 End Contracts
Ratio = 1:33 (lvl8/263.84OTR)
Gen was 1Star (All Offers) / TV was 5Star (2nd Offer)

Based on that I had much better ratio this season BUT way worse offers.I think that ratio has nothing to do with it.

In that case, I'd expect it to be nothing but chance odds of getting anything on any given offer, and some really shitty luck on your part, Nytemare.
I await canucks357's final report.

A little low on data to make any real conclusions. But it seems to be weighted towards the 1 star side. With 1 star being the highest probability and decreasing to 4 stars and 5 stars being slightly higher than 4 stars.

equal odds sound most likely to me too..
But it almost seems like this season the lower stars were made more likely.
Not sure why... if everyone has the same odds on stars, it will be all the same (relatively speaking)

Y'all are forgetting a crucial fact. Once somebody gets a 4 star offer or better they accept it. Of course there will be more 1-3 star offers reported.

The only reliable data set is first offers.

Thats actually not true

Whatever the odds are, its the same.
If you take a statistics class, what you referred to would be true if only it was like drawing for a deck of cards where once you draw a specific card, or in this case number, you cannot get it again.

But it is in fact the same odds every time to pull the same number the next time or any other number as it was the first time.
Its like a dice. Just because someone rolls 6. After wards, its still a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 6 again... or a 1,2,3,4 or 5.

Right, but who rejects a 5-star offer? Someone can get 3 one star offers, but nobody gets 3 five star offers. Ya dig?

It doesn't matter when you stop rolling the dice, so long as you record the numbers and the amount of rolls, you still get an accurate reading of the odds if your pool of data is large enough.

Agreed

He's right.Based on the way we're collecting data, it doesn't matter how big the data set is. It will always be skewed towards offers less than 4.

Unless canucks is refining the data and looking at 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th offers separately. If he pools it and then looks for trends it's going to be wrong.

I dig,
but - look at it this way.
Lets say we have a weird 5 sided dice.
We'll make the rules exactly the same. The object of the game is to get as high as you can in 3 rolls, or you must take the 4th.

Someone rolls a 1 to start, obviously they will roll again,
Lets say they get three 1s in a row.
The effect is that they were able to roll more 1s because they kept rolling

Another case though
Someone rolls a 5 to start - they will stop rolling.
So they can't roll another 5? true...
Well, they also can't roll another 1, or 2 or 3 etc.

Whichever number you stop on doesn't make that number more rare, it takes away 1, 2 or 3 rolls which each had an equal chance of being a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5.

So if everyone stopped once they hit 5 it doesn't mean we will see less 5s, it means we will see less rolls.

I got 1,1,1,1 so my dice were weighted.