Subject: Questions & Answers

It reads "14 plus minus 20) versus (9.5 plus minus 20)" so that everything is within reasonable bounds.

+/- 20% ???
Are you sure about that 20% ?

Why do you believe you should be scoring on 14% of your shots?

I would think 10% is more normal. Goalies have a standard save percentage of 0.900. So for shooters to be around 10% seems most realistic in my view.

no he isnt. i think his point is that you cannot count on having a 14% shot efficiency every game.

You can regard the scoring efficiency as a random variable with a certain mean value and a certain variance. If you now find the shortest interval containing something like 95% of hits (realisations), then you can come up with something like this (say, in 95% of games between such teams your scoring efficiency will lie in between 0 and 35% or so).

He was referring to the game of the two particular teams with the actual team strengths. I didn't check but the expectation may lie way ahead or below 10% depending on the teams and tactics

I didn't say that I count on 14% shot efficiency on each game.. Just said that according to his goalkeeper rating, yes, I should have that 14% on that game.

From my point of view, is a little bit weird that he scores 3 times against a good goalkeeper while I score just twice against e mediocre goalkeeper.

Sorry for my poor english !

Teams have scored 5 on Luongo and gotten shutout by a backup the next night. Sh!t happens That is the way of hockey.

Any ideea how often this 'sh!t' happens ?

I'll try to find out , checking other matches, but as I saw on my games, this 'sh!t' happens like once on 10-12 games !

P.S. That means I will win tonight in cup ? 'cause I set to play low, again.

Ok, now I understand where that expectation came from:

1) Yes, there is a random element element. I think most people perceive chances to score as some strength of attack & shooting vs. strength of defense and goaltending, ... or something of the like. Sometimes you're going to crap-out ... especially when the number of scoring chances in a "real" hockey game is what, 10 for both teams?

2) That goaltender had 8 competitive games coming into yours this season. Basing your assumption on just 8 prior performances this season is probably too small a sample size for a couple reasons (a) experience may help players more early rather than later (i.e. like a larger benefit from 0 - 2 than from 8 - 10, so he's improved in experience [and training] since his first few starts), and (b) , the strength of his previous opponents surely affected his save % coming in

3) As was said, you played on low importance

4) You drew just 40% of the face-offs ... it's an opinion, but I believe the draws help you prevent scoring chances against and create them for your team.

The key is all in how you look at the game. If you only think in terms of "my team is better therefore i should win" the game will be incredibly frustrating.

You have to think in terms of a board game. If you are playing monopoly and your opponent only has boardwalk with a hotel, the chances of you having to pay are slim. You can go 20 times around the board and never hit it, or you could hit it on 5 consecutive trips. But statistically you are more likely not to, and if you play enough rounds the numbers will show that. That's why you can't look at individual losses and really question them. That's like landing on boardwalk your first trip around the board and declaring the game rigged. You have to instead look at the trends. If your team wins 5 games it should and loses 1 it shouldn't, that's merely statistical probability catching up to you. Chances are there may have been absolutely nothing wrong with your team or gameplan, the dice roll just didn't go your way.

But I want to win everytime!

The people who get upset about losing these random games remind me of the people who play games like Madden or NHL10 and quit their single player games and restart them if they are losing.

gotta have that perfect season every time on easy with maxed sliders and the top players in the league winning every single award.

That way all your REAL friends can laugh at you and tell you how much of a weenie you are.