PowerPlay Magazine

THIS ARTICLE IS OUT OF DATE. THERE ARE CHANGES COMING DOWN THE PIPE THAT WILL RESULT IN WEEKLY SPORTS ACADEMY PULLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LATER AVERAGE ARRIVAL TIME OF PLAYERS FROM THE ACADEMY.

Rome wasn’t built in a day, nor was PPM’s draft. There have been some growing pains, some frustrations and most of all a lot of opinions from people. Why? Because they care.

We all had opinions how to improve the draft. There’s no denying it is exciting and adds to the value of PPM. I am pleased to have had a role in modifying the old draft system into the system that was announced yesterday and, for the most part, the feedback has been very positive. It was rewarding to hear people getting excited about something I had put a lot of thought into. However, not everyone was so happy with the news. Through 10+ pages of answering questions I have come across the most common concerns over the new system and they typically stem from a lack of understanding and simple confusion. So, I am taking it upon myself to alleviate this confusion as best I can. I trust you’ll have a new appreciation for the draft going forward as a result if you don’t already.

The main concern was the two 3-week windows where there would be no prospects arriving from the academy or a draft. Please don’t be alarmed by this, it will work out better for you (odds of getting a good player, and timing of getting those players) so please bear with me. This was the toughest point to get across so I want to attempt to explain it using the thing that is most natural to me: numbers. This was a quick calculation, something we’d call “back of the envelope” referring to the proof-of-concept nature and not the “these numbers are 100% accurate and consider everything” type of thing that would be presented in a formal paper or report.

For the remainder of this article I will use hockey as an example (20 teams) and the league I am in (I.1) as an example. It will vary from sport to sport and from league to league but the overall message will be much the same. Qualities don’t vary by league, nor does the frequency of good players being populated.

The PPMe application has allowed me to observed lots of data on sports academies.  I fully intend to release an article on this data but for the time being you’ll need to trust me when I say the odds of pulling a player from the SA with 4* or greater potential is roughly 5% with 4.5* and above accounting for around 1% of all players pulled. Looking at only 6/6 players, 4* and above will occur around 3% of the time due to the 60/40 split on C/L.

We are all after star players in the draft. What I’m going to do now is break down three scenarios:
1) 16 weeks of SA pulls, 0 drafts
2) 8 weeks of SA pulls, 8 drafts (former system)
3) 8 weeks of SA pulls, 2 drafts with 4x the players (new system)

Scenario 1
My hockey team gets 5 players per pull. Most often these players are crap, in fact, I am lucky if I accept 2 players per season from my academy. Perhaps my standards are too high? Regardless, I’m in a luxurious position to afford to do so. With 5% of players being  4* or greater that means 1 in 20 players will be 4* or greater, at 5 players per pull that is one 4* player per 4 SA pulls. That’s not too bad. However, keep in mind that 40% of these will be 5/6 players.  Thus, 3% of players are 4* or more and 6/6. This takes me to 6-7 weeks for a 4* player, or 2 per season which is roughly what I am getting. Given a draft every week, the odds of pulling such a player average out to week 8.

Summary: two players arriving week 8

Scenario 2
Pulls now arrive on odd weeks (1,3,5,7,...13,15) which still has an average of week 8. The frequency is cut in half so from my SA I can now expect a single 4* or greater 6/6 player arriving still on average on week 8. Now, how does the draft come into play?

In the former system there were roughly 120 players in my league, that is, on average, around three 4*+ 6/6 players per draft based on that 3% value. If we assume a 75% success rate on picks (that is, 3 of 4 teams will pick the best player available) then these players will be gone by the 4^th pick which we’ve often seen. Sometimes you get lucky, I found an A+ with the 13^th pick, but that is rare. Chances of being in the top-4 of the draft for the 4 random weeks is roughly 80% with average of week 8. The two based on SA and the two based on lowest standing we will assume the number of teams with good SAs and bad standings is roughly that of bad SAs and good standings. Additionally, the week 16 draft has players arrive week 1 of the following season giving an average pull week of 6.25. So, for these 4 drafts you’ll have something like 75% odds to get one pick somewhere in the top-4 during those four drafts considering the ±3 position random movement as well. Again, this is talking average over a full season and across all teams.

Thus, if we look at the draft contribution you have 80% (week 8 average) and 75% (week 6.25 average) chances at a 4* or greater 6/6 player. From the draft you could get none, chances are you would get one, you could get more! Much of this will have to do with how active you are and how active your competitors are.

Summary:
SA – one player arriving week 8
Draft – 0.8 players arriving week 8 + 0.75 players arriving week 6.25

Scenario 3
Pulls now arrive weeks 1-4 and 9-12. This will, once again, give an average of one player but with an average arrival date of week 6.5. There are now two drafts instead of 8, but the player pool is 4x as large thus the total number of players that arrive is the same. We will only have 2x the picks, so 10 picks, but the last few rounds of picks have nearly never been kept in my league (hidden gems excluded) in any draft thus far and if they were they were fired, sold, or pose no threat to making the team. By going from 1x to 4x the player pool and 1x to 2x the number of selections, it is only these players who we’d be missing out on during the three-week no-players-to-pull time periods.

Moving forward, instead of 120 players there will be 400 players in each draft (1.2 scale factor revoked). Instead of three 4*+ 6/6 players there will be 12. Assuming again the 75% success rate that would leave A+ players available at the 16^th draft position. Given the ±3 spot random movement in either draft type you now have everyone with a shot at drafting such a player during at least one of the drafts. Putting numbers to it, it would look something like this (again, estimating and not exactly concrete math/stats here but it paints the picture):
SA-based draft: Players arriving week 8, 80% chance. Position-based draft: players arriving week 1, 80% chance.

Summary:
SA – one player arriving week 6.5
Draft – 0.8 players arriving week 8 + 0.8 players arriving week 1

Season Average Summary (by Scenario):

Scenario 1: 2 players arriving week 8
Scenario 2: 1.75-2.55 (median 2.15) players arriving week 7.5
Scenario 3: 1.8-2.6 (median 2.2) players arriving week 5.3

As you can see with a very quick example, your players will arrive earlier thanks to the draft and much earlier thanks to the draft modification! Your odds of grabbing a good player have also gone up with each advancement of the academy/draft tandem. This is ignoring the fact they’re revising what constitutes an A or A+ player so we’ll have even more confidence in the players we select! Sure, some seasons you may get less than 2 per season. Heck, that can easily happen with your SA and no drafts. The point is, implementing the draft and now modifying it will give you a better chance at good players (being active on the site helps!) and get them to you quicker. Getting them to you quicker lets you train them faster and also get them on the market when they are most valuable.

All round this is a win for PPM and its managers. I hope you all agree and are excited about these changes. You may not like waiting the three weeks twice per season, but the SA still plays an important role in the OR your players from the draft arrive on your doorstep with. And, with better odds than ever at getting said players, that increases not decreases the value of your SA. Besides, I’d much rather wait 3 weeks to have a great shot at a good player than have a chance every week but with low odds. Think guys, would you rather wait a month and know you’ll likely get a good looking girl that night or would you rather go out once a week with little chance at anything you’d be willing to risk having your buddies see you with? My thought too... :)