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  PowerPlay Magazine

Sports Academy Investigation - Article 1: Player C/L Paths


Sports Academy Investigation - Article 1: Player C/L Paths

I first want to thank everyone for contributing to this research. Without your help none of this would be possible. I am going to release PPM Mag articles as time permits for each subset of the data analysis once I am convinced it has converged. But first, let me call for more data once again.

In this previous article I outlined my intentions and provided THIS FORM for people to submit their players. It requires all players you were offered (soccer players only for the time being!). At the time that this article was written, there were over 430 submissions each with up to four players. While I intend to look at the impact of staff, facility level and time of pull among other things. What I'm going to talk about today is career longevity.

There is a clear advantage to pulling 6/6 players. They tend to go for more on the market and also are more likely to be pulled if their overall rating isn't as high as we'd ideally like. Is there anything we can do to control C/L from the academy? The short answer to that question is also the answer that pops into your head first: no.

I had a look at data for the levels below. I needed to include facility levels with lots of data points and logically those are the top-3rd levels since they draw more players and are par for most teams. The data distinctly converged on a 60:40 between 6/6 and 5/6 players.

Ratio (6/6:5/6)
Level 10: 58:42
Level 12: 59:41
Level 13: 61:39
Level 14: 58:42
Level 15: 60:40

Clearly, as illustrated above, there is not much variance across levels. And, as staff only increase your effective academy level, staff will not have an impact on C/L either. Nothing new presented here, but, we can conclude that the chances of a player being 6/6 when offered from the SA is 60%.

I can take this a step further and look at the odds of various C/L paths being pulled but let me warn you, the data provided for odds at each age and C/L is very old and likely only accurate to first-order. Take for example 15 6/6 going to 16 5/6. 

I for one am very familiar with my best purchases in soccer following this C/L path. While they are guaranteed to be 5/6 at 19 years old, it is certainly frustrating. The past study found that 17% of 15 6/6 players drop to 16 and 5/6. Thus, if you pull a player the odds are 10% he will be on the 15 6/6 to 16 5/6 C/L path.

Next, what about 18 6/6? Well, 60% odds of being pulled at 6/6 followed by 83% chance of being 16 6/6 another 60% to stay 17 6/6 followed by 50% to 18 6/6 and you're looking at a 15% chance of pulling a player who will turn out to be 18 6/6. It is more likely to pull said player than it is to pull a 15 6/6 to 16 5/6 player.

One final example, the dreaded 17 4/6 player. As if pulling a star 5/6 player wasn't heartbreaking enough, the 17 4/6 is a dagger in their long-term future. Past research has shown that age is the dominant factor in player training. You can expect these 17 4/6 players to train well if the qualities are there. However, when they age their training will drop off quickly once they go past their guaranteed 20 4/6 mark. 30% of 5/6 pulls were found to be 4/6 at 17 with the old data archived on C/L paths. That means that 12% of all players you're offered will turn into 4/6 17 year olds. That is more than the 15 6/6 to 16 5/6 C/L path but less than the beloved 18 6/6 C/L path.

Well, that concludes the first of many articles on this data. Thanks again for all who submitted. Next up I will look at prefered side probabilities and the impact that time of day has on pulls. After that I will likely look at how player qualities are tied to overall rating. Stay tuned and thanks for reading. Keep the data coming!

PS. We are working on an add-on that will automatically document your pulls for all sports. This will allow us to compare academies across sports, and, eventually, illustrate the differences between sports and the odds of pulling a great player. 





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