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  PowerPlay Magazine

Sports Academies: A first look at the player pulls.


Sports Academies: A first look at the player pulls.

 

I haven't written one of my investigative PPM Magazine articles lately so I thought I'd update you on some data that was finalized the other night. During the past soccer season I asked for people to submit data on the pulls they acquired. Along with myself, JoruneZephyr, McRoyal and Yzerman were the main contributors to the data pool. Jbrady83 and biznow contributed here and there "providing low-end data points" as biznow said.

What I asked was that people provide information on the OR, star rating, C/L and preferred side of each player they pulled in addition to their academy and sports director abilities. As that data pool was fairly small, it is not possible to come to any conclusions as to the impact of sporting directors though it is certainly not negligible. One of the weeks when I was running my training camp I forgot to swap back in my youth training sporting directors (100% youth training efficiency each) and while I was getting four mid-300 OR guys with my lvl 14 SA and 100% youth training on average, with the training-camp-focused sports directors and their 21% youth training efficiency I pulled three (instead of four) players in the mid-to-low 200 OR range. Now, pulling players in the mid-to-low 200 OR range happened with the 100% youth efficiency sports directors, but having 3 players that low in one pull is statistically relevant.

So, before I show you the results, I ask that you all contribute data about your soccer team during this season as best you can. HERE IS A LINK that I ask you to bookmark and update after each soccer pull. I request ALL players data not just the ones you accepted. If the response from the community is positive enough that I get lots of data, this time next season I should have good numbers on the impact of sporting directors on pulls in addition to improving the results already found in regards to OR and star rating. So, first, here is the data summarized:

 

Preferred Side 

Level of SA

Data Points

Statistical Error

Average OR

Average Stars

Average C/L

L

R

U

7

5

45%

143.6

2.4

5.6

40.0%

0.0%

60.0%

8

32

18%

227.4

2.0

5.5

28.1%

50.0%

21.9%

11

17

24%

239.1

1.7

5.6

35.3%

23.5%

41.2%

13

45

15%

294.9

2.0

5.6

28.9%

28.9%

42.2%

14

119

9%

320.7

2.2

5.5

34.5%

31.9%

33.6%

Global Average

218 (Total)

 

 

2.1

5.5

32.6%

32.6%

34.9%

 

As you can see, the results aren't all that surprising. The average C/L is 5.5 meaning you have 50/50 odds of pulling a 6/6 player. Additionally, the odds of pulling a L vs. R vs. U player are equal within statistical relevance. The average star rating of players is just above 2. The low dip at level 11 and high value at level 7 are abnormally extreme due to low data points at those levels. Keep in mind star rating accuracy is dependent on HR level and scouting managers which has not been taking into account here.

Next, and the main result of this first-wave investigation was how player overall rating changes with facility level. Again, staff has an impact but there are too few data points at each level with varying staff abilities to resolve this impact. Nevertheless, even ignoring the varying staff impact, there is a clear and distinct trend towards stronger pulls at higher level academies (lvl 14 pulls are over double the OR on average of lvl 7 pulls).

Rather than blabber on about this that and dissecting it even more I think I'll let the data speak for themselves. I just ask you keep in mind the level of statistical relevance in this data set. What it boils down to is we need more data. So I ask again, please submit your team's pulls via the above form, especially if you have lower level facilities. Each submission asks for a minimum of 1 player and you can input a maximum of 4 (the lvl 15 SA max).

Thanks for your time and good luck in the upcoming season!

 

 

 





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