Subject: I.1

After today's interesting results, we still sit ahead of Belarus, based on GD being 4 better than theirs. Belarus play Russia tomorrow, while we have UK. Here are the possible outcomes:

1. Belarus beats Russia while we beat the UK.
In this case, both teams will have four points, and so it will come down to GD. We'll have a head start here, and if they beat Russia, I suspect it won't be by more than a few. Still, no guarantee if (1) happens we move on.

2. Belarus beats Russia while we draw with the UK.
In this case, Belarus will have 4 points and we will have 3, and so will not move on.

3. Belarus beats Russia while we lose to the UK.
In this case, Belarus will have 4 points and we will have 2, and so will not move on.

4. Belarus draws with Russia while we beat the UK.
We have 4 points and they have 3, so we move on.

5. Belarus draws with Russia while we draw with the UK.
We each have 3 points, so it comes down to GD. Since, by the parameters, our GD doesn't change, we move on.

6. Belarus draws with Russia while we lose to the UK.
They have 3 points, we have 2, and so do not move on.

7. Belarus loses while we win.
We have 4 points, they have 2, and so move on.

8. Belarus loses while we draw.
We have 4 points, they have 3, and so move on.

9. Belarus loses, while we lose.
We each have 2 points, and so GD comes into play. We would have to lose by 5 more than they do.

So, on these nine scenarios, we are eliminated in three of them, guaranteed to advance to the final 16 in four of them, and have favorable situations in the other two.

Still, it's worth noting that if Belarus upsets Russia, a possibility given they've secured a spot in the next round, we must win against the UK in order to have a chance to move on.

You won't like that!! Your OTR will take a beating !! I speak from experience, having done it twice in back-to-back seasons.

I was there in season 20, and I've spent the last three seasons down. I think I could do well enough to avoid relegation (possibly), but I won't be nearly good enough to make the playoffs.

Well, we've done it, somehow, through the injury and blunder, we've made it to back-to-back World Championship Round of 16 games! Our reward is to play Slovenia...

USA! USA!

Sorry, we're playing Slovakia! I had the pairings right (1st place their group vs. 4th place ours), but thought Slovenia won the group.

Well, we hung in there with Slovakia until the end, actually leading at halftime 14-13 before falling 30-28, drawing to within 1 with 2:35 left before surrendering the final goal with 1:13 to go. It was a good season, and I think we can build on it next year!

OK guys, this is that time of the season where I ask for your help!

We could use:

1. Another offensive or defensive pivot. We have one of each, but we could always use more.

2. A 20-year-old wing would be awesome, offensive or defensive but preferably offensive.

3. I think we're OK on backs unless you have one who might make it!

We have six roster spots.

so... an interesting case study for anyone interested:

in hindsight... I think i might've stumbled unwillingly and unwittingly into an interesting end-game PPM "strategy."

Somewhat counter-intuitively, selling a franchise player that you've invested a lot in (via salary bonuses) BEFORE he reaches free agency, gives you a potential war chest which you can then tap in order to potentially reattain that player back once he becomes a free agent. From that point, his ongoing matching costs would each time he hits free agency can largely be offset by what you originally sold him for. your total costs would be remarkably lessened by doing that.

Consider my current situation...

For those of you who hadn't seen, I repurchased my old franchise goalie John Fields.

Consider the economics of this whole situation playing out.

Had i not sold fields by accident, I would've been on the hook for:

1) his roughly ~185m in salary expense over the last 5ish seasons (figure 330k / day x 560 days)

2) the cost to match whatever his RFA offer would've been at age 26. with my bonuses paid to him, i'd be responsible for matching 25% of whatever that amount was. Assuming 400m, that'd be a 100m cost. For a more extreme 500m offer, it'd be 125m.

3) Then at age 29, i'd have to pay the UFA cost that i just paid, which was was 190m (45% of 420m).

4) AND i wouldn't have the 330m from selling him (minus the 5% transaction fee, so... actually closer to 315m).

So... my actual scenario was something along the lines of:
+315m-(0)-(0)-290-190
(sale price from selling him) - (salary expense) - (RFA expense) - repurchase expense - UFA expense

--> total cost = 165m

But had i not sold him, my costs would've been more like:
+0-(185)-(100m to 125m)-(0)-190m
(sale price from selling him) - (salary expense) - (RFA expense) - repurchase expense - UFA expense

--> total cost = 475m to 500m

so by essentially "renting your superstar players out" during the prime of their free agency years, (fields was "rented out" between age 24 and 29), you can save a boat load of cash. In my example, i actually saved myself roughly 310m to 335m bucks (basically the sale price he originally sold for).

Might not be worth the sacrifice of not having him on my team for those five years... but i can definitely imagine a situation where you have a team FULL of guys that are gonna be getting 400m free agency offers (bringing your team a "death by a 1000 100m free agency matching cuts" so to speak). I mean, that would've been my scenario right? with David Allen, Ted Keenan, John Fields, etc. EACH costing 50m to 100m or so (even after salary bonus benefit), my "pre-blowup reserve" of 300m or so, would've been exhausted in short order.

So this definitely seems to be a way you can "keep your team together" without breaking the bank. You just have to sort of do a bit of short term sacrifice for long term gain.

Interesting case study, don't you think?

P.S.

There obviously is SOME risk involved though right? I mean, you're basically counting on being able to actually lure your superstar back (either by buying him on the market as i did with Fields, or by just throwing a big UFA offer his way).

But consider the following:

any team that owns "your guy" already paid to acquire him. So in fields' case, that was an expense of 330m. Then, that guy had SOME RFA matching costs, WITH NO (or very little) SALARY BONUS BENEFIT, so figure ... 70% of 400m, that'd be 280m. THEN, he'd be on the hook for 90% of whatever UFA offer Fields gets (in this case, 420m) would've costed him another 380m. So his all in cost would be roughly 1 BILLION $. VERY FEW TEAMS are gonna be able to foot that kind of bill for one player. It's much more likely that they'll let the guy go (back to you, ideally) as a UFA. And you'd basically just be using THEIR MONEY to require him, resulting in essentially zero cost to you.

Just something to consider.

And yes, I confirmed prior to deploying this strategy when i reacquired Derek Carney via UFA several seasons ago... SALARY BONUSES YOU PAY A PLAYER ARE FOREVER. EVEN IF YOU SELL THEM AT SOME POINT, THEY ARE RETAINED IF / WHEN YOU REPURCHASE THEM.

as a result of that, you can really finesse some gamebreaking tactics if you're active / engaged with market buying / selling... which admittedly, has never been my cup of tea with this game.

A very interesting concept that may require further study by me!!

I have been proud to feel like I am on this journey with you--really just being privy to watching it--and it looks fun! However, I am not yet in any such position. If I had such a desirable player, I'd probably just sell him period hahaha

You also have to hope he goes to a good team when he sells. For whatever reason, sometimes teams with really, really bad facilities can bid over 100M on players and then they ruin them.

My tactic has just been to train young guys and sell them before they cost too much, lol. But I'm also more focused on providing players for the U19-21 teams, haha.

Hey all, Just letting you know due to trying to finish a PhD, I am not planning on running for the U21 national team manager for this upcoming season. I have really enjoyed it, just need to take some time off. If no one from USA signs up, then I will, just to keep the continuity, but I will be doing the bare minimum, and I just feel the team could do better than that with some dedicated manager from the US!

I can take that from you. I have experience with leading the U19 national team of Poland for few seasons. I was looking for a national team that would need a manager.