Subject: USA U-18 Team

Spain also lost both of its first two games, so it will be winner takes all tomorrow (even if the game ends in a shootout).

I'll also note that I bought the starting goaltender for the team earlier in the season to make sure he would go to a team with good facilities. I have better goaltending prospects in my system, so I plan to sell him once the season ends.

Good stuff! Keep it up.

My plan seems to have worked, and the United States shut out Spain 3-0 today. Coming out of the win, the United States is about as strong as France and Switzerland due to having saved energy in the first two games. The starting goaltender, who is the weakest one in a while, goes out of a strong group and into the next round with a 100% SV% and 0.00 GAA.

The game was tied at 0 through the first period and close with a 1-0 lead (the game winning powerplay goal was scored by the Bouncing Pucks' Ossie Carmichael) through the first half of the third period. Vern Schulte of the Medvescak 1983 scored the insurance goal, and Zack Sloan (originally from the Sticky Toads) added an empty net goal. The U.S. controlled play throughout the game and outshot Spain 37-23.

Going into the next round, the United States has an insurmountable GD in addition to starting with 0 points, but goes into the games against the tired Finnish and Portugese teams as the favorite. 5 of the teams in the other group would be the second strongest team in group 1, and the 6th best team would be very close to being the second best team. They aren't guaranteed wins - upsets are fairly common. I've lost games with ~10-20 point advantages (and won games with similar deficits) in the past. Even so, I believe the U.S. should pass Portugal (unless they have something held in reserve that I am not accounting for). Finland will be a little tougher. Finland looks like they should lose all 3 games, but one upset is all it would take for them to likely hold onto the 4th slot (it's not impossible the U.S. could close the GD gap though). Switzerland will be hard to pass since they will likely beat Portugal. On the other hand, with a U.S. and Czech win tomorrow, the Czech Republic could clinch the next round and decide to rest against the U.S. and France to prepare for a long playoff run making an upset possible. Overall, the U.S. probably projects to end up in 5th, but 4th is definitely achievable. From there, it would basically be up to RNGesus to deliver any further victories. Ultimately, I've already achieved my goal for this season, but I'll do my best to at least advance to the playoffs.

Tomorrow the U.S. plays Finland, the Czech Republic plays Switzerland, and France plays Portugal.

[basketball_team=13066] play basketball, but I'll see what I can do

Good luck Cap!

Thanks for the good wishes, but unfortunately the U.S. lost 0-3 today to Finland. The tactics in the first two periods didn't help, but there's not much that the U.S. could have done if the offense isn't converting any of its 29 shots. Finland outshot the U.S. by a slight 31-29 margin and the game was pretty even in terms of faceoffs, penalties, and offensive zone time. Finland played 4 lines instead of 3 and could have put forward a stronger lineup at the cost of energy if Finland's manager had wanted to do so.

The U.S. isn't technically eliminated, but the U.S. would need to beat both the Czech Republic and Portugal and for Switzerland to lose to both Finland and Portugal to advance (or gain less than 3 points overall). If Switzerland wins one of those games in regulation, then the U.S. would need to win by a large margin in both remaining games and for Finland to also lose by large margins or Switzerland to lose by a very large margin in its loss to still make the next round.

The Czech Republic has clinched the playoffs, so it's not impossible that they could rest tomorrow (though that wouldn't guarantee a win). In terms of matchups, they'll want to avoid Slovakia and Hungary if possible, but saving energy might be more viable than going all in when it's unclear what position they will need to end up in to get their most advantageous matchup. If I were managing the Czech Republic, I'd probably rest for the next two games.

A loss by Switzerland against Portugal might be too much to ask for, so I'd say that the best case scenario would be to hope for an overtime win by Switzerland.

The playoffs aren't quite out of reach yet, but they're unlikely at this point. If the United States is eliminated from contention tomorrow (which would likely happen alongside Portugal being eliminated), I'll probably just use the third game primarily to give some chemistry and experience to the 17 year olds on the roster. For now, I'll hope for the best and try for a more desirable result tomorrow in terms of tactics!

The United States managed to beat the Czech Republic 4-0 today. As I suspected/hoped, they realized that they had clinched the playoffs and decided to play the game on very low/rest their better players. Even with that advantage though, they still could have won. Going forward, the Czech Republic will probably be the favorite to win the tournament, but for today and for the sake of the minor goal of making the playoffs, I'm happy to take the win.

Baumgarten (Momentum/Smart People), Ellison (Bouncing Pucks), Ayers (St. Ova Bears/SlovakMasters from Slovakia), and Schulte (Medvescak 1983) contributed goals.

More importantly than beating a resting Czech team, Switzerland was upset in overtime by Portugal. Finland also lost to France who didn't decide to rest. Today's results weren't quite perfect, but they were as close as the U.S. could reasonably hope after a disappointing loss to Finland.

Realistically, the U.S. still lags Finland by 12 GD, so the U.S. won't likely pass Finland. In addition, for the U.S. to pass Finland, Finland would have to lose in regulation to Switzerland which would make it impossible to pass Switzerland, so I'm hoping for a Finnish regulation win against Switzerland tomorrow. If the United States doesn't get more points than Switzerland who has a 11 GD advantage going into tomorrow, then it is unlikely that the U.S. would pass Switzerland either. The United States needs 2 more points than Switzerland tomorrow to make the playoffs. Switzerland looks stronger than Finland, but Finland played rested a bit by playing on normal today, so the difference should be closer tomorrow than it seems to be today. As for Portugal, the United States looks like a strong favorite, but I've lost games that looked liked sure wins in the past and won't take them for granted. Overall, it's most likely that Switzerland takes #4, but the U.S. has a pretty strong chance at stealing 4th (which could actually set the U.S. to play one of the more manageable teams in the first round of the playoffs with some luck based on current standings). Hopefully the team will pull through!

I'll also note that Finland has played conservatively with 4 lines throughout the tournament. Should they decide to go all in against Switzerland, they might actually be on even footing with Switzerland tomorrow.

The U.S. can't finish above 4th place, so if the U.S. takes the 4th seed, they would play the 1st seed from group 2. The first seed will be either the winner of Canada and the U.K. (both of which would be beatable) or Hungary (the worst case scenario). Unless Hungary wins in regulation and the other game ends in overtime, Hungary will end up tied for first and would need to win by a sufficiently larger margin. In addition, Hungary has clinched the playoffs and could possibly rest against Slovakia who needs to win to make sure that Latvia doesn't manage to steal their the 4th seed. In addition, on paper, the second seed in group 2 is most likely to play Finland in the first round and possibly France (as opposed to the Czech Republic) in the second round, so the second seed might arguably be the most advantageous seed for Hungary (making it more likely that they don't take the game against Slovakia seriously).

Congrats on the win and the qualification
Good luck for the playoffs.

Thank you and good luck to Portugal next season!

The United States won against Portugal 4-1 today. Finland also beat Switzerland 3-2, so the United States will actually make the playoffs this season for the first time since season 32. This will be the United States' 6th trip to the playoffs. With the help of RNGesus, the United States could make the final 4 for only the second time.

The United States and Canada will face off in the first round of the playoffs. Canada is definitely a winnable matchup and preferable to Hungary or Slovakia, but the United States is exhausted at this point while Canada sort of rested by playing their better players on the 4th line in their last game. If the United States won, they would face the winner of Finland (who is probably the most promising possible matchup despite the previous loss) or Slovakia (it would require a lot of luck to beat them).

In today's game, goals were contributed by Boswellx2 (Puxina from Czech Republic/Sticky Toads), Deshano (les castors from France/Sticky Toads), and Ayers (SlovakMasters from Slovakia/St. Ova Bears). Boswell also contributed an assist on a third goal.

Hopefully the team will pull through tomorrow against Canada!

Well done! Great results this season regardless of what happens next.

Thanks! I'm happy given that this wasn't one of the stronger U.S. teams I've had to work with.