Subject: Questions & Answers

my guess... and only guess for game calculations:
- you have some quite long loop - where every item in this loop is one game event (eg. shot on goal, hit, etc.)
- all of this events are evaluated separately - meaning... first shot (some calculation depending on players' atts etc) and result is no goal... second action is blocked by defenders, etc... then part of these actions are some hits or so - and if player has low tech, the action ends as a penalty...
- this is calculated for both of the teams in a game
- result is just the sum of successful shots...

very oversimplyfied, and only my guess, how an engine could work maybe this engine as well...

better teams are creating more scoring chances and they are usually better at converting these chances. every chance is calculated separately. because the stronger team has more chances and also has a better chance to score on each chance, it is more likely to win.

but the calculations of each chance are once again completely separate. in an extreme case it can happen that the stronger team will not score any goals even though they had a lot of shots and very good shooters. the goalie always has a chance to make the save. it means that he also has a chance to save every shot.

on the other hand the weaker team has fewer chances and lesser probability to score on each chance. still, any shot on goal can be turned into a goal. Even if the shooter is weak and the goalie is strong. therefore there is also a probability (although extremely small) that they will score on every shot.

In the end it comes down to who scored more goals.

you are very close to how it actually works

how do you calculate upsets or surprises then if they are not "random"?

please read my last few posts.

okay... based on vlady's reaction... for most of you:
your big problem is, that you assume, that first is the result of the game computed... like 2 random numbers... and then a few other statistics is generated randomly... like - now i will generate the number of shots for both teams...
but it does not work this way...

number of shots is just the sum of actions that ends with a shot...
number of goals is just the sum of actions that ends with a goal...
number of penalties is just the sum of actions that ends with a penalty...

every action is calculated as individual action... so every action has its own random, etc...

And every action depends on certain "facts" and maths....these facts would be interesting!

btw... sorry for my quite poor english

....
"for example me, I had during 12 days 4 matches with these strange results...is this OK?"

yes, it is ok, you might also have long stretches where everything goes perfect but you never mention those.
....

in those matches I won and I mentioned them...It never bothers me only when I lose

....
"if you think everything is OK, so why others complaining about it for so long?"

because they don't understand how the engine works and they don't see the big picture
....

yeah, big picture is nice, everything is in order...but why are there teams that never have these "upsets" and "surprises" and teams with them every second game? If everything will be OK, they will be distributed between everyone

same thing happens with youths, there are teams with great pulls every second pull, and there are teams with no luck at all...why is that if, as you wrote recently, everything is done by Gaussian distribution?

This means....which facts lead to a shot? Or which facts prevent enemy from shooting? and so on....

this is too deep for me to say... i can guess, it depends on atts like offence of attacking player, defence of defending player, perhaps some tech, aggr, energy, etc... but i doubt anyone from devs will tell you how this exactly works

and well i would guess... that every action is influenced by more than 1 attacking player, as well as more than 1 defending player... maybe even the whole line...

Facts and math would be based on numbers.

So in theory, a team with stronger offense, stronger defense and a better goalie should win 99% of the time...

If indeed the math is based upon actual team strength numbers.

If not, it's NOT based on facts and math.

sorry, i was a little slow

"in those matches I won and I mentioned them...It never bothers me only when I lose"

then reverse my statement, it applies either way.

"yeah, big picture is nice, everything is in order...but why are there teams that never have these "upsets" and "surprises" and teams with them every second game? If everything will be OK, they will be distributed between everyone"

show me one team that has had results with 50% of upsets over a long period of time. You cant distribute upsets evenly because every game is a separate entity. there is no record who had how many upsets in his games.

"same thing happens with youths, there are teams with great pulls every second pull, and there are teams with no luck at all...why is that if, as you wrote recently, everything is done by Gaussian distribution?"

same here. every pull is a separate calculation. it is impossible to ensure the same amount of "luck" for everyone. that's life.