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Předmět: Draft and Sports Acadamy
coach2live gave me an idea.
Using the same logic as before,
If you see an 'A', what is it?
At 14% inaccuracy, it is:
A 6.67%
B 66.67%
C 26.67%
So, with a low scouting accuracy an 'A' is only an 'A' 7% or so of the time.
Most of the time(66.67%) it's actually a 'B'.
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Same calculation for 'B'.
At 14% inaccuracy, a 'B' is:
A 4.88%
B 48.78%
C 46.34%
At 14% inaccuracy, a 'B' is:
A 4.88%
B 48.78%
C 46.34%
All of this math to pick a 200 OR at best 
1st draft will be a bust
1st draft will be a bust
That's what I was just thinking too lol
Please recall that I said the over all probabilities do not change. In reality, the actual probabilities are a nightmare to predict due to the low level of scouting accuracy--though your numbers could be close. The likelihood that any player we scout is what he was scouted at is very low. Recall, for example, the drafts in hockey (particularly the lower leagues) when the draft first rolled out. I expect that accuracy level to be even worse here because it will be throughout every league
Where are people getting this distribution of A, B, C, and D players as well as the accuracy of the scouting centers from?
from their dreams...
Yay, I got first pick! Now I can use it to grab the one C player I found instead of any of the 13 D's!
Okay. So this entire conversation was a waste of time then. Good to know not to even bother pointing out the horrible use of statistics and probabilities.
1. The original question was would it be better to draft a 'C' or '?'. The numbers were provided to give people a tool to make their choices.
2. The distribution numbers were taken from the soccer draft, as was stated in my first calculations post on page 6. The accuracy of scouting number +-15% was from a post by a moderator, I think it was Canucks.
3. If you think you can do a better statistical analysis, I am eager to to see it.
2. The distribution numbers were taken from the soccer draft, as was stated in my first calculations post on page 6. The accuracy of scouting number +-15% was from a post by a moderator, I think it was Canucks.
3. If you think you can do a better statistical analysis, I am eager to to see it.
I order them 6/6 (A,B) 5/6 (A,B) , 6/6 ( ??, C ,D) 5/6 (?? , C , D )
I believe the Gems are sprinkled in the C , D players but I could be wrong.
I believe the Gems are sprinkled in the C , D players but I could be wrong.
Lot's of midgets in the draft. I wonder how many years it will take them to grow. 
Yeah... perhaps. I guess it's a preference thing though.
In past drafts in other sports, if you don't get an A, the player isn't really even worth drafting.
So that's why I would probably not choose a C player over a ? player. Sure, if you draft a C player, he might turn out to be a B, and you might improve your chances of getting an "average" player that can fill a hole on your team. But teams quickly fill up with "average" players.
I'd prefer to go for the long shot superstar any day over an average guy.
In past drafts in other sports, if you don't get an A, the player isn't really even worth drafting.
So that's why I would probably not choose a C player over a ? player. Sure, if you draft a C player, he might turn out to be a B, and you might improve your chances of getting an "average" player that can fill a hole on your team. But teams quickly fill up with "average" players.
I'd prefer to go for the long shot superstar any day over an average guy.
My current team is about 3 Cs, lots of Ds.
I wouldn't mind drafting a B right now.
Also I don't have the facilities/coaches to train players. So, even if I somehow get an A, he will go undeveloped and I will sell him in 2-3 seasons. Same with a B I suppose.
I guess what it means is all I need is a backup PG that will play for me next 2 seasons before I dispose of him. That is why I am leaning towards drafting what I've scouted as a 'C'.
I wouldn't mind drafting a B right now.
Also I don't have the facilities/coaches to train players. So, even if I somehow get an A, he will go undeveloped and I will sell him in 2-3 seasons. Same with a B I suppose.
I guess what it means is all I need is a backup PG that will play for me next 2 seasons before I dispose of him. That is why I am leaning towards drafting what I've scouted as a 'C'.
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