Předmět: Draft and Sports Acadamy

I actually found 1 - C and 1 - A. I will be stunned if either turn out to be that good, though.

That said, I'm with several others around here that think this draft will be a total waste because no team is developed enough in their scouting or training to make this worth anything.

this first (and likely the second too) will be a waste. Not a total waste but unlikely will bring any sort of franchise player.

I found 1 B and 1 C.

Well for what it's worth, scouting works based on giving you a range of responses.

The worse your scouting is, the greater the range. So assume that your "range" right now is +/- 10-15 AQ. If you find a B player, and B players (when perfectly scouted with level 15 facilities) are 65-75 AQ, then based on your current scouting range, your B player could be as bad as 50 AQ (which would probably rate him a C or D) or as good as 90 AQ (which would make him an A or A+).

However... the player you scouted as an A will always have more value... even with poor scouting. If you assume that A players (when perfectly scouted with level 15 facilities) are 75-85 AQ, and you have your same scouting range as before, that player could be anywhere from 60 AQ to 99 AQ.

Yeah, it would still suck to get a 60 AQ player (if he comes in on the low end)... but your chances are much better that he'll be higher quality than other players that you find.

So finding an A player is still a good thing. Congrats!

What do I do with C players? Should they be placed ahead of unknowns on my draft list, or at the bottom?

To B, or not to B, that is the question.

Bottom. I would randomly draft a ? mark, rather than a C.

With our poor scouting...
I estimate 1/20 chance that the C is actually an A. 1/3 chance that the C is actually a B.

The chances that a ? is an A, are may be 1/100.
The chances that a ? is a B, are 1/20.

All of this is my estimates out of my head.
I am sharing this on condition that I bear no responsibility for your picks.

you forget the other side though. If there's a 1/3 Chance that a C is actually a B, there's also a (corresponding) 1/3 chance that a C is actually a D.

I'm with outsider to be honest.

Even though scouting currently sucks, I'd go with an unknown draftee before I go with a C.

There is no other side. We don't care if a C turns out to be a D, neither C, nor D will be useable.

I feel like I need to explain math in more detail.

As I've said:
C = 1/3(33%) chance to be an A or B. 2/3(67%) chance that it's a C or D. We don't really care about Cs and Ds, they are both unwanted.

? = 1/20(5%) chance to be an A or B. 19/20(95%) chance that it's a C or D.

Conclusion:
Drafting a C gives you a 33% chance to get a usable player.
Drafting a ? gives you a 5% chance to get a useable player.

Again I take no responsibility for anyone's picks.

I typed and re-typed this several times. Finally posted, and lost it because of the 7:30pm EST season update.

I really don't feel like typing this crap up again, so I'll just say this:

You can't mix and match probabilities.

Lets say the following are the probabilities for "?" players:
A or A+ : 5%
B : 10%
C : 25%
D : 60%

5 out of every 100 "?" guys are As or better. 60 out of every 100 "?" guys would be Ds.

ok. So if you scout a guy, and you see him as a C player, as far as I'm concerned, these probabilities stay the same. There aren't suddenly more As or Bs on the draft board just because you scouted a C player. Nor is he suddenly more likely to be a B player just because you scouted him as a C. The prior ratios hold.

But maybe we eliminate A and A+ as options. So we adjust the probabilities accordingly.

So lets say the following are the probabilities for "C" players:
A or A+ : 0%
B : (10%/95)x100 = 10.5%
C : (25%/95)x100 = 26.3%
D : (60%/95)x100 = 63.2%

As you can see, taking a C player might give you a slightly better chance at getting a B, but in doing so, you have a higher chance of getting a C or D as well, and you sacrifice your chance at getting an A or A+.

Ok lets break down the numbers.
At this point I don't have an opinion, I am actually wondering what the numbers will show.

Assumptions:
1. The grade probabilities in Basketball are same as in Soccer. I will therefore use soccer proportions where I have more data.
2. The max 15 scouting, provides 100% accuracy.
3. The min 0 scouting, provides +-15%.
4. The scouting most people have is close to minimal, so I will use +-14%.

Data:
A - only 1% (100-100)
B - 10% (90-99)
C - 16% (74-89)
D - 73% (1-73)

Calculations:
1. Ok, first the easy one.
? (unscouted) can be:
A 1%
B 10%
useful total = 11%

2. C is somewhere in 74-89 range. Assuming 14% inaccuracy, the actual range is anywhere between 60-100.
After an hour of calculations...
What looks like a 'C' is
A 0.87%
B 20.74%
C 55.46%
D 22.93%

So, here is my final conclusion:
A 'C' has a slightly lower chance of being an 'A' than a '?' but it's only 0.87% vs 1%.
On the other hand a 'C' can be a 'B' 20.74% of the time vs '?' only 10% of the time.
This more than doubles the chance of getting a quality player.

I have a headache. There is a reason I hate math.

But, Lanky is right. The over all probabilities never change. Which is why I am scouting draftees for the sake of curiosity...not because i think it will do any good. I do hope I get that A player I found. But with 5/100 of a chance that he really is an A player, I am not holding my breath for him.

I am gonna do 2 more runs with lower deviation in accuracy.

At 10% inaccuracy a 'C' is really:
A 0%
B 16.37%
C 67.26%
D 16.37%

That's faulty logic.
Probabilities don't change if you pick blindly.
If you know the likely hood of events probabilities do change.

Simple example:
3 doors.
You know that the left door has a 5% chance of getting eaten by a tiger.
Middle door has a 20% chance of getting eaten by a tiger.
Right door has a 50% chance of getting eaten by a tiger.

If you didn't know the probabilities of the doors and tigers and opened a random door, the chances of you eaten would be 25% (average).
But if you know the probabilities, the chances are only 5% because you'd only open the left door.

Anyway, once we get to 5% inaccuracy:
A 'C' would be:
A 0%
B 8.52%
C 82.95%
D 8.52%