Asunto: USA U-18 Team

You've done a great job for years, and I'm pretty surprised you made it this long. It only took me one season as an assistant to realize that running the national team takes more time than I want to spend on PPM.

U18 is the hardest because you have to do all the initial scouting. U20 and Senior are a little easier, because the players you want are listed on one of the more junior teams. I have developed exel programs, and use the PPM followed page to keep track. It's taken me a while to put all this together, but it means I can run several teams without too much inconvenience. The biggest key is to scout players daily, especially if your facilities are in the lower to mid stages.

Thanks! The U18 teams was definitely the team that I usually put the most time into.

I used excel to organize my scouting information. I had columns to identify players with the highest OR after accounting for experience, a corrected version that calculated the effective OR for badly trained players, a column that showed the difference between the two to show how far a player would be from reaching his full potential, the effective positional quality, the amount of shooting, the amount of technique, the level of facilities, CL, and the level of staff. It takes forever to get all of my scouting on the spreadsheet though. I've tried having websites set up that could parse the player pages in the past, though they didn't get maintained for long, and the effort in putting one together probably nearly outweighed the convenience they provided.

Generally, I did two rounds of cuts. First I'd cut players with bad facilities, players with average OR and really bad effective qualities, or players with bad training who I didn't think were likely to be corrected. I might make an exception if there was a lack of depth for a position or if a poorly trained player has OR large enough to still be better than the alternative in spite of the training. In the second round, I'd cut players who were okay but too far away from having a chance of making the team. I'd also cut forwards with bad shooting (or defensemen with excessive shooting) if there are sufficiently good alternatives that are otherwise comparable. For defensemen, I didn't really value shooting or technique, though I liked to have at least 1 or 2 with some shooting and gave a preference to a defensemen with more technique over a comparable defensemen that neglected it (I also liked to have 3-5 defensemen with some technique to keep penalties from getting too bad). Then I would make the final cuts to choose a team with the 5 best lines, the 2 best lines of 17 and under players that didn't already make the team (the best of these players would sit on the bench for exhibitions to collect the training bonus), the 3 best goalies, the best 17 year old goalie that didn't already make the team, and the best 16 year old goalie that didn't already make the team.

I usually ended up with defense as a strength due to neglecting technique (it's not ideal, but it was the one way we managed to be competitive with the the competition in team strength). Goaltending tended to be good every other season. Center depth is often relatively good. Wing depth tends to be good for the top two lines and then significantly drop off for the bottom two lines. There were usually 2-5 17 year olds good enough to make the starting lineup.

I went on a bit of a tangent there, but perhaps someone might be interested in how and why I chose (or didn't choose) the players that I did.

I'll work on putting together a roster for the next season over the next few days. The next manager can make any desired changes, but at least they'll have a workable roster to start from.


Anyone interested in running (or continuing to run) the U18 NT after next season should focus on scouting the roster and and the players that I will be posting here who are 17 and under.


In addition, you can find players by checking the rosters of other U.S. teams (anyone on a team with training and regeneration below 10 won't improve enough to be worth considering at 18 years old), the transfer histories of each active U.S. league for this season and the past two seasons (15-17 year olds), and the draft histories of each league (sometimes there are players who are not good enough to make the team that drafted them that get terminated who are still decent players).

I will leave the U20 manager as the assistant manager (to be able to look at the roster for putting together this and future U20 teams) until I update the roster. After that, I will add the person running for the U18 team as the assistant to get a head start. I recommend that the U20 manager be left as the assistant (to keep the U20 manager up to date with the state of future prospects) unless the new manager has someone else in mind who wants to help.

I put it off a bit, but I'm going to spend today working on it and finish by this evening.

I've updated about half the potential candidates on my spreadsheet so far.

I've finished going through my scouting history and just have to make my final selections.

I added all the players I wanted to add.

There's no guarantee that the next manager will want all of the same players, so some players I added might end up being removed. In particular, 16 year olds, lower OR players, forwards with low shooting, project players could be but are not yet good (in terms of training), and generally players who are trained different than the next manager prefers could be subject to being removed. With that said, the roster probably won't change substantially.

I will post the information about the depth that I promised and put together a scouting list for the new manager later tonight. I'm going to leave the U20 manager as the assistant since the new manager is going to take over soon anyway.

Before I start, I'll note that some players that I don't choose because of training might be trained that way to keep the salary down, to try experimental ratios, and to train one attribute at a time if the person doesn't have pro pack (I'd probably end up neglecting my own training without the automatic training).

Number of players at each position scouted:

C: 46
LW: 25
RW: 26
UW: 9
LD: 33
RD: 17
UD: 11
G: 15

Total: 182 (excluding players that ended up on dead teams or without a team)

Center is always the deepest position (something to keep in mind when choosing a position for a prospect if you want the prospect to make the NT). On the other hand, goaltending depth tends to be weak. There are usually only 2-4 good goalie prospects each season.

The following players were cut in the first round because they either had bad qualities, their training was off (from 2:1:1 Goa: Pas:Tec, Def: Pas:Agr, Off: Pas:Tec, or Off: Tec:Agr or 75%-100% shooting for forwards) and couldn't be fixed within one season, or they had bad facilities (below 13 training). If a position lacked depth and the player was good enough, I might not have cut a player I otherwise would have cut. The team listed are the original team in the case of players sold or the current team if the player was terminated by his original team.

G:
Scott Reader - TEAM USA (I.1)
Long Jones - HC Vitanova (IV.22SVK)
Ward McIntosh - San Crispino (I.1)
Dom Gilchrist - St. Peters Penguins
Zack Barker - San Crispino

UD:
Cody Todd - Spartak Kaplitz (II.1)

RD:
Theo Epps - Chorzowianka (III.1POL)
Eldon Dubay - Whiskey Wizards (II.2CAN)

LD:
Leon Randolph - Momentum (I.1)
Gabe Hawkins - Rockland Rage (I.1)
Casey March - Royal Sovereign (I.1)
Tony Krueger - Aztecs Milano (II.1ITA)
Brian Ham - Razorback Thugs (I.1)
Joe Hayes - Varteks (II.2CRO)
Jeff Huber - Saboteurs (II.1)
Ross Yanez - Saboteurs (II.1)
Woodrow Cilulizi - HC Hrebecsko (IV.32CZE)
Garrick Crawley - Anaheim Ducks hc (III.6HUN)

UW:
Mark Cross - San Crispino (I.1)
Roy Vollmer - VuDuu (II.2)
Stuart Long - San Crispino (I.1)
Jon Cochran - Bay Gulls (II.4)

RW:
Dion McKnight - San Crispino (I.1)
Joakuim McCormack - Royal Sovereign (I.1)
Jon O'Connor - TEAM USA (I.1)
Layne Hamlin - San Crispino (I.1)
Lincoln Briscoe - San Crispino (I.1)
James Squires - hc clermont huskies (III.6FRA)
Kaleb Rivers - Royal Sovereign (I.1)
Quinton Byers - VuDuu (II.2)
Frederico Selleck - Sanatorium33 (IV.22SVK)
Michael Roche - Momentum (I.1)

LW:
Erick Hawks - St. Peters Penguins (II.3)
Ned Morales - Saboteurs (II.1)
Owen Brower - Wariorss (II.3)
Jonathan King - Momentum (I.1)
David Dodge - SK USP Brno (IV.46CZE)
Royce Barron - Astronauts (II.3)
Thomas Peet - Iron Nails (I.1)
Mikey Fowler - Momentum (I.1)
Jay Edmond - Anaheim Ducks hc (III.6HUN)

C:
Lou Bremer - Beavers (I.1)
Mitch Mahon - Michigan RED WINGS (I.1)
Dan Boswell - San Crispino (I.1)
Gustavo Dougherty - Rockland Rage (I.1)
Josh Main - Beavers (I.1)
Vernon Boyle - TEAM USA (I.1)
Michael Weber - San Crispino (I.1)
Clint Portillo - Gamblers (I.1)
Tommy Lozano - Gamblers (I.1)
Ronald Moreland - Check Republic (I.1)
Andrea Stimson - Reginan vangit (II.4FIN)
Jeremiah Starnes - Momentum (I.1)

In the second round of cuts (out of three total), I removed players whose OR was too far off the top players at a position to deserve consideration. I usually target the top 5 lines, the top 2 lines of players that are 17 and under who didn't already make one of the top 5 lines, the 3 best goaltenders, the best 17 year old goaltender that didn't already make the team, and the best 16 year old goaltender. I also added the most promising line of 16 year olds to set up a baseline for two seasons from now. I'll go into more detail about the players in the final round. I should also note that for newer players, I sometimes have to guess what position a player will end up in.


RD:
Elmo Steed - Momentum (I.1)

LD:
Trent Brinson - Iron Nails (I.1)
Stuart Brass - Spartak Kaplitz (II.1)
Kendrick Palmer - Fehervar AV19 (III.2HUN)
Michael Moore - Astronauts (II.3)
Russell Waddell - Astronauts (II.3)

RW:
Doug Hull - Spartak Kaplitz (II.1)
Mark Ecker - Spartak Kaplitz (II.1)
Vance Diaz - Lamp Lighters (II.3)
Ernest Calvario - VuDuu (II.2)
Randy Lipscomb - VuDuu (II.2)
Norman Waite - Astronauts (II.3)

LW:
Myles Bailes - Momentum (I.1)
Vincent Schroeder - Momentum (I.1)

C:
Bryan Tyler - Bouncing Pucks (I.1)
Karl Hernandez - Spartak Kaplitz (II.1)
Darron Hall - Lamp Lighters (II.3)
Thom Edge - Kamzeek PPP (II.2)
Jonathan Abney - Iron Nails (I.1)
Mack West - Lamp Lighters (II.3)
Charles Rappley - Michalovce Wild Hogs (I.1)
Wilfred Buford - Lamp Lighters (II.3)
Zack Vargas - Spartak Kaplitz (II.1)
Clarence Mauldin - Spartak Kaplitz (II.1)
Jonathan Lockett - Spartak Kaplitz (II.1)
David Cloud - Gamblers (I.1)


Going into the final round of cuts, the number of remaining players at each position is:

C: 22
LW: 14
RW: 10
UW: 5
LD: 18
RD: 14
UD: 10
G: 10

For the final round of cuts, I will list the EOR (positional OR modified by experience), and Correct EOR (throws away excess training) in the following manner: (Age, EOR, CEOR). Players whose numbers are far apart need to improve their training (and could possibly do so by the end of the season). I primary sort by CEOR, but I sometimes consider the possibility that a player with a much higher EOR could realize his potential. Note that EOR can't be compared between positions. I don't include technique or shooting for defensemen in EOR, though I give a bit of bonus consideration to high tecnhique/shooting defensemen against similarly talented defensemen with weaker technique/shooting.

G:
Bobby Miller (18,579,512) - Lamp Lighters (II.3)
He has great qualities but weaker facilities and CL. He's probably the only goaltender that didn't make the team that might be worth consideration for a top 3 goaltender position, perhaps in the event of an injury.

Pancho McQueen (17,427,400) - Lamp Lighters (II.3)
His qualities and facilities are a bit low. There are 3 candidates for the 17 year old slot, he was probably my second choice. Realistically, Carl Majors should be the starter next season over all 3, but Majors made one of the top 3 slots.

Lynn Coleman (17,511,204) - Gamblers (I.1)
In terms of potential, he could be the backup next season, but he's only trained goaltending thus far.

Mike Martel (16,339, 275) - Michalovce Wild Hogs (I.1)
He's a solid prospect and should be the backup goaltender as an 18 year old. He has great qualities. The player I chose for the 16 year old slot should be better at 18, but has 5 CL, so Martel should end up as the better goalie in the long run. There's probably a case to made to give the player that won the 16 year old slot the 17 year old slot and to give Martel the 16 year old slot, but I decided to take a chance on a 17 year old project instead.

Leigh Malone (16,319,252) - VuDuu (II.2)
He has a weak regeneration facility, but with good training, he could be in the running with Martel and Thomas.

Usually I substitute in UD and UW into the left and right slots, but this season, the depth was a bit weak in terms of universal players (they weren't improvement on the players available on the left and right sides), so I only added one of each.


UD:
Sandy Shields (18,426,424) - San Crispino (I.1)
Average qualities and facilities. A bit more shooting than I would like for a low OR player, but otherwise trained well.

Sam Calkins (17,476,424) - VuDuu (II.2)
Great qualities, low regeneration, and average OR. With good training he could be a consideration for next season.

Donte Blackwell (17,384,372) - Medcescak 1983 (I.1)
Average qualities, average OR, good facilities, well trained.

Ronald Easterling (17,391,310) - Michalovce Wild Hogs (I.1)
Average qualities, average OR, and good facilities. High technique defenseman.

Chad Reetz (16,329,308) - Medvescak 1983 (I.1)
Likely consideration in two seasons, but unfortunately dropped to 5 CL already.

Darren Burt (16,245,236) - Momentum (I.1)
Elite qualities but lower base OR and 5 CL.

Frankie Berry (16,359,222) - VuDuu (II.2)
Good qualities, 5 CL, and low regeneration, but needs to work on defense.

Reid Field (16,277,202) - Michalovce Wild Hogs (I.1)

Truman Bae (16, 241,160) - Michalovce Wild Hogs (I.1)