Asunto: USA U-18 Team

Avoiding relegation is good!

Good job man !

Thanks! I'm happy to come out of the first two games against the Czech Republic and Finland with three points. Congrats on the win against Hungary and good luck against Spain tomorrow!

The United States took the game into a third consecutive shootout today, losing to Brazil in 4 rounds. With 4 points from shootouts, the United States advanced to the qualifying round. The United States, Czech Republic, and Finland all had 4 points, but Finland ended up in the relegation round based on the goal differential tiebreaker.

The United States goes into the next round with 2 points from its two shootout losses. The next three games will be against Slovakia, Latvia, and then Switzerland. The United States probably has a path to the playoffs. I expect Slovakia and the Czech Republic to lock up the top two seeds. The United States is only 1 point and 2 GD behind 3rd place Brazil at the moment.

With that said, I'm not too confident in this season's roster so I think making it to the playoffs is the best we can expect. Next season's roster should be much stronger (the top two lines plus one more forward from that roster were good enough to make the top five lines this season). The roster in two seasons will have an especially strong goaltender.

Here's looking forward to the next round!

Sorry I haven't been as active this season. I've been busy and haven't had the time to go through my scouting history to update the roster until now. I'll be back to normal by next season once this month ends.

After going through my scouting history, I wouldn't really change the startling lineup from the group of players I already had carrying over from last season except for replacing one player on the fourth line and swapping 3 players (2 of them were just players I added to the roster to try to save them when the War Pigs were folding) out for new players to sit on the bench.

Unfortunately, 2 of the top 3 centers who had played for the team to build chemistry last season were sold to a team with bad facilities a month ago, and there really isn't anyone that's capable of replacing them.

If you have a player that is starting this season (any player that will start was already called up including the player that I will be moving onto the 4th line), please work towards the following ratio if you aren't already there by day 100:

2:1:1 (primary attribute:secondary attribute:secondary attribute) for centers, wings, defensemen, and goaltenders.

Shooting should be 75%-100% of offense for forwards (maintaining the 2:1:1 ratio for the other attributes comes first though, and it's not the end of the world if a few forwards are lacking shooting).

Shooting doesn't need to be trained any further for any defensemen.

I tend to prefer not to train technique for defensemen; anything up to ~1/4 of defense should be fine. Due to the lack of depth in the United States, I prefer defensemen who are really good in the main attributes rather than mediocre to below average in everything including shooting. I might reconsider if the United States regularly had 12 defensemen starting their season as 18 year olds with ~1,000+ OR, but we don't have that luxury. With that said, having a few defensemen with higher technique can help balance the no-technique defensemen when it comes to the risk of penalties (so the defensemen currently training technique can continue at least as far as the U18 team is concerned).

The World Championships have started once again. The United States is in a difficult division this season with the Czech Republic and Latvia. It will most likely come down to the final game against Romania to avoid relegation. The United States has strong goaltending and defense this season but is lacking a bit when it comes to offensive depth. I expect to avoid relegation and challenge for the playoffs, but I don't think the depth is there to challenge for the title, though anything can happen with luck from the RNG. On the first day of the tournament, Steve Ostrander (one of the last prospects from the War Pigs) went down with a wrist fracture for 2 weeks. He was only a 3rd liner though, and there are comparable players available to fill in.

The United States opened the tournament with a 4-1 over Latvia. They played on very low and might have been conserving energy expecting an easy win. In the last game, I was building the chemistry for the backup, so the team is a fair amount stronger than it might have looked after a cursory glance with Charles Malcolm back in the net. I think they might have just forgotten to adjust tactics though. Either way, this is a very convenient upset for the U.S. putting us in first place after the Czech Republic was also upset losing a point in an overtime win against Romania. 2 points in the next 2 games would clinch the next round (it's possible if unlikely today against the Czech Republic). 1 point should be enough. In particular, since Latvia is very likely to end up in the next round, the 3 points against them should set the U.S. up well if we advance.

All lines contributed to the score with goals from Tinsley, Macon, Burden, and Martin. Malcolm saved 17 of 18 shots. The U.S. outshot Latvia 36-18 and only gave up 2 penalties. The only downsides of the game were the 44% faceoff win percentage and going 0/5 on the power play.

Today the U.S. will play the Czech Republic and Latvia will play Romania. The Czech Republic along with maybe France and Switzerland look like some of the favorites in the tournament after a cursory glance, but hopefully we come out of the next game with a few points. Should the U.S. advance, it is liked Hungary, Germany, and the United Kingdom would join the U.S. in the qualification round with Hungary and Germany being the strongest contenders for the playoffs along with the U.S., Latvia, and the Czech Republic.

Go get em!

Thanks!

The United States won 5-0 today after losing 0-2 to the Czech Republic yesterday (that loss wasn't surprising, but it was nice that the U.S. at least kept it close for GD purposes). Latvia surprisingly lost to Romania likely due to forgetting to update game importance and will go into the relegation round that also features a Swiss team that looked like a contender on paper along with Belarus and Brazil.

The U.S., Czech Republic, and Romania will join the U.K., Germany, and Hungary in the qualifying round. The U.S. is currently in 3rd place on a tiebreaker and 2 points out of first. The U.S. starts with a strong group leading +3 GD which should give the U.S. a bit of a headstart in case of an eventual tiebreaker.

Tomorrow the United States will face Germany. The teams are about evenly matched. The United States will likely have to win against either Germany or Hungary in the next two days to advance to the playoffs. Ideally, the United States would benefit from avoiding France or Slovakia in the playoffs and from being in the same bracket as the Czech Republic.

I think the U.S. has a decent chance at advancing at this point. It'll come down to luck and tactics.

What an exciting game!

The United States beat Germany 4-3 in a back and forth game after a shootout today. The U.S. took a 2-0 lead going into the 2nd, but Germany tied the game by the end of the second period. The U.S. took the lead again, but Germany tied the game again with 10 seconds left. Tinsley scored the game winning goal in the shootout as the United States outscored Germany 2-1 in 3 rounds. Macon scored 2 of the regulation goals (including converting the only powerplay opportunity), and Currier scored the other goal. The United States outshot Germany 41-24 and won 63% of the faceoffs. It helped that Germany seemed to be conserving energy in this game.

In the other two games, the Czech Republic beat Hungary 1-0 in regulation and Romania routed the U.K. 8-2. The Czech Republic leads the division with 8 points, followed by the U.S. with 5 points and +4 GD. Hungary only has 1 point and everyone else is close behind the U.S. Tomorrow the U.S. plays Hungary, the Czech Republic plays the U.K., and Romania plays Germany.

Going forward, I expect the Czech Republic and Germany to win tomorrow. The game against Hungary is winnable, but they'll be the favorites. On the last day, Hungary should beat Romania and Germany could beat the Czech Republic. It'll probably come down to the U.S. vs. the U.K. to advance to the playoffs (with the winner likely taking 2nd or 3rd place). Alternatively, if the U.S. manages to win against Hungary or even lose against Hungary in overtime and hold onto the GD advantage (currently +4GD against Hungary's -3 GD), the U.S. could secure a ticket to the playoffs tomorrow (assuming no other upsets). Overall, I'd give the U.S. a 60% chance at the playoffs. Anything further will depend on luck with matchups, tactics, and RNG.

The United States lost 1-4 to Hungary today. Although Hungary has struggled until today in this tournament, Hungary has a very good team, so the result is not surprising though it's disappointing that the U.S. missed an opportunity to clinch the playoffs today. The others games went as expected as Germany beat Romania 4-2 and the Czech Republic beat the U.K. 8-3.

Tomorrow the U.S. plays the U.K., the Czech Republic plays Germany, and Hungary plays Romania. The Czech Republic and Germany have clinched the playoffs, and the Czech Republic has clinched first place in the group already. Looking at seeding, if Canada or Sweden manage to advance, they would likely be 4th place and play the Czech Republic. The only remaining good matchup to try to get would be Portugal who will most likely fall to 3rd, so 2nd place in the group will be ideal, and it should be attainable since the Czech Republic should probably beat Germany and the U.S. would probably pass Germany with a win against the U.K. As far as group A, it's most likely going to be the winner of U.S./U.K. and the winner of Hungary and Romania taking the remaining too spots, so the U.S. needs to win tomorrow to make the playoffs. There is also an unlikely scenario where the U.S. loses in overtime and Romania wins in overtime against Hungary where the U.S. would still take the 4th seed. I'd give the U.S. a 50% against the U.K. tomorrow.

The United States lost today 2-4 and will miss the playoffs. If it's any consolation, the U.S. ends with the 9th best record ahead of everyone that missed the playoffs.

The Czech Republic will play Canada, and the winner of that game will play the winner of Germany and Russia. Barring an upset, it should be the Czech Republic vs. Russia. The U.K. will play Slovakia and the winner of that game will play the winner of Hungary and Portugal. Barring an upset, Slovakia and Hungary should advance even though they are both the lower seeds. I think the Czechs were ahead of everyone else and had some chance to rest a bit, so I'm predicting they take the championship probably over Slovakia. In any case, I'll wish good luck to our neighbors to the north in attempting to achieve some upsets.

We had a decent roster this season outside of offensive depth. The playoffs were within reach, but I don't think anything more would have been possible. I don't like our chances against Slovakia in the quarterfinals, Hungary in the semifinals, or likely the Czech Republic or Russia in the finals. I felt we had a difficult division this season so I went all in when it comes to energy early on leaving the U.S. exhausted at this point. The 4th and 5th line depth largely wasn't good enough to compensate for the exhaustion, and the injury to the third line winger certainly didn't help in that respect. I could have conserved energy a bit more, but even in hindsight I'm not sure I'd have wanted to do anything different and risk the possibility of relegation.

Next season's depth isn't looking too great overall, but it should be passable enough to have a chance to stick around in the top division. Left wing is a major area of weakness. At the moment the only candidates on the current roster are a 16 year old and the 17 year old with the second lowest OR among 17 year olds.

Well done. I think you handled this tourney very well.