Asunto: US National Team

Has anyone figured out an equation that relates Exp to OR to help you guys determine when one player's OR outweighs another player's Exp?

100 experience = 20%

Given in game rankings of the lines, I doubt that is accurate.

I believe it's half that, 100 experience = 10%. However, 100% chemistry would also add 10%.

this is what i remember and if you go to PPMe settings you will see the same thing: experience = 0.002 -> that is 20% per 100 exp points.

ppm.powerplaymanager.com/...

Here's a PPM article for PPMe that suggests 10% for chemistry and experience and a 1 percentage drop of overall OR per loss of an energy point. I assume that some sort of research went in to developing these numbers, but you can always test them on your own.

I just did a few simulations. I have one RW with off:tec:agr = 439:220:200 and another with 440:220:220 (this one has 40 lower shooting). The first player has 265 experience, 100 chemistry, and 98 energy. The second player has 68 experience, 93 chemistry, and 98 energy. I am going to assume that the bonus for chemistry and experience is the same.

The offense on the line originally with the player with more experience started at 271 and ended at 258. 271/258 = ~1.05. The other line changed from 268 to 255. 255/268 = ~.95.

(439+220+220)(1+365/100*.2)(.98) = ~1490.
(440+220+220)(1+161/100*.2)(.98) = ~1140.
(7862+1490)/(7862+1140) = ~1.04
(6193+1140)/(6193+1490) = .95

(439+220+220)(1+365/100*.1)(.98) = ~1176.
(440+220+220)(1+161/100*.1)(.98) = ~1001.
(6639+1176)/(6639+1001) = 1.02
(5370+1001)/(5370+1176) = .97

Energy ultimately cancels out anyway. The first case seems to be closer to the actual percentage change in team strength, assuming the there is a linearly relation between percentage change in OR and percentage change in team strength.

*The offense on the line originally with the player with more experience started at 271 and ended at 258. 258/271 = ~.95. The other line originally with the player with less experience started at 255 and change to 268. 268/255 = ~.95.

*Final Edit (I don't like the time limit for editing):

The offense on the line originally with the player with more experience started at 271 and ended at 258. 258/271 = ~.952. The other line originally with the player with less experience started at 255 and change to 268. 268/255 = ~1.051.

Higher Line Change (20% bonus):
(7862+1140)/(7862+1490) = ~.963

Lower Line Change (20% bonus):
(6193+1490)/(6193+1140) = ~1.048


Higher Line Change (10% bonus):
(6639+1001)/(6639+1176) = ~.978

Lower Line Change (10% bonus):
(5370+1176)/(5370+1001) = ~1.027

The First number in each equation is the sum of the effective OR's of the other 4 players on the line calculated in the same way for the same bonus.

Chemistry cancels out as well if everyone has 100% chemistry (the player with lower experience has 93 chemistry and everyone else has 100). Even so, the effect on the results is not significant and affects both bonuses similarly, so I am going to repeat the last comparison ignoring energy and chemistry. If chemistry can be ignored, then the assumption about experience being equal to chemistry in effect can be disregarded.

Higher Line Change (20% bonus): ~.954

Lower Line Change (20% bonus): ~1.054


Higher Line Change (10% bonus): ~.974

Lower Line Change (10% bonus): ~1.029


Another problem with the above estimates were that I counted 100 chemistry + 100 experience as 200 experience so that the multiplier is (1+200/100*.2) = 1.4 instead of (1+100/100*.2)(1+100/100*.2) = 1.44, so these estimates are more accurate (and closer to the original numbers in the case of the 20% bonus), except for the ~.001-~.002 error from the player with slightly less than 100 chemistry.

Sorry about replying so much about a topic that probably belongs in a different forum, but this last post wrongly assumes that there is a chemistry bonus on the bonus OR attributable to experience (it's not impossible, but I would assume there is no such double bonus).

With that in mind, it is uncertain exactly when the energy modifier is applied. I'd bet that my first estimate that effectively applied the energy modifier before experience bonus and then added a similarly calculated chemistry bonus and base OR should be the most likely method.

The only thing left to look into is whether a 10% bonus might apply to experience/chemistry and a 20% bonus to chemistry/experience.

It seems I was including the OR of the defensemen in the earlier calculation. Fixing this results in the 10% experience more accurately projecting offensive strengths.

Using the players from the U18 national team (they all have lower experience and the first line has good chemistry) and the 10% experience bonus, it seems that setting chemistry to a 20% bonus gives more accurate results.

your have to make it simple: use goalkeeper.
and dont know why it sounds very complicated what you did. isnt just easier to just play one game with one. another with the other and get the percentage of the rate increase and multiple for 2 (since there are 2 defenders)?

I just focused on offense because I happen to have 2 forwards that are exactly the same except for experience. Goaltenders would probably in fact give a more accurate result.

I repeated this for my goaltenders. I calculated the effective OR (times (1+exp/100*weight1+chemistry/100*weight2) for all 4 combinations of weight1,weight2 = .1,.2. I divided the effective OR of one goaltender by the other in each case (a choice of weights) and compared it to the goaltending strength from game 1 divided by the one from game 2.

For both cases where experience was weighted 20%, the ratio was overestimated (when the better goalie was in the numerator). These estimates where high by about 10% of the ratio from the games. When experience was weighted by 10%, the estimates were better. These ratios were low by around 1% of the ratio from the games. There is a significant difference between the experience of the goalies, so this estimate should be good since experience plays a large part in their relative abilities.

Both estimates for chemistry given a 10% for experience were pretty good since my backup has very good chemistry and my starter has 100% chemistry, but there is some difference between their chemistries. The estimate for 20% chemistry was better once again. The ratio for 10% chemistry was low by about 1% while it was low by .1% rounded up for a weight of 20%.

I'd still say that the weight is 10% for experience and 20% for chemistry. I wasn't necessarily trying to obtain this result - this is just the result I've gotten a few times.

I've definitely noticed PPMe with its 20% exp bonus was telling me certain players would give higher ratings than others, whereas the game summary would have them reversed. It also says 100 chemistry is a 25% bonus, but that one might be correct.