Asunto: General Sponsor Offers

Placement: 2nd
League: Tier II
HR: Level 8
Stands: 9600 Seats (max accessories) [Mentioned because helps determine TV offer]

General Sponsor:
2 Star
65.5 mil
(4.1 mil/week)
REJECTED

TV Sponsor
5 Star
9.1 mil
(570K/week)
ACCEPTED

Oh forgot... OTR is 215

Both rejected:
Gen: 3 stars 5.5m/w
TV: 2 stars, just under 1m/w

Wow.

That makes a lot more sense now. Here's what I got:

TV Rights:

Last Season:
Contract worth: 3,696,192
Weekly donation: 231,012
This Season:
Contract worth: 6,974,896
Weekly donation: 435,931

3 star offer. Rejected.

General Sponsor:

Last Season:
Contract worth: 29,680,624
Weekly donation: 1,855,039
This Season:
Contract worth: 60,691,360
Weekly donation: 3,793,210

4 Star Offer. should I take or not? =/

4 star 4.9 mil OTR 215 unsure but probably taking it,, accepted 5 star TV 950,000 week, weak indead lol

I always accept 4* offers.

I usually do as well. But it seems that everyone else is getting kickass offers and I'm getting a bit bummed out =/ hahahaha!!!!!

If another person says yes too, I'll do it

yes

ofc take it. 20% chance for a better one

Okay thanks guys! took it!

Is it equal prob for each? I have a suspicion that it's more like:
10%
25%
30%
25%
10%

With a gaussian-like curve. But I have no facts to back it up.

it feels more equal to me...
its going to always look like its weighted for better ones because people will only ever accept the best ones.

But yes... take a 4 star... you only have at best a 20% chance of getting better.. and even then its usually only about 100K/week better... and then you have a 60% chance of getting less and up to 300K/week less... too risky. Take a 4 star.

Besides... just because other people are getting better deals does not mean if you get a 5 star it *could* be as good... it will never be as good.. because of your rank, league, OTR and HR facility... you have a range that your offer will fall in, and never more and never less.

5 stars Weekly donation: 594,223 (took it before the bug was fixed)
5 stars Weekly donation: 4,843,127


I should increase more HR (only level 7)

I changed my mind...
with 3 picks left, the odds are in your favour to select again on a 4 star offer.

Reasoning:
There is a 80% chance you will get a 4 or 5 star offer in the next 3 offers. (1 minus the odds of not getting 4 or 5 stars = 1 - (0.6x0.6x0.6) ~= 0.80)

If you look at it like its you vs. the game, then you have 4/5 chance of winning, and they have a 1/5 chance of winning.

Now we have to factor in the risk... since each star added or subtracted adds or subtracts about the same amount... we can just look at it like you stand to gain up to 1 more star (which could be like $100,000/week) and you stand to lose up to 3 more stars (which could be like $300,000/week).

So basically you are betting 3 stars and the game is only betting 1 star... but you have 4 times better odds of winning... so in the end... you have a 4:3 odds of winning more when calculating risk.

After the next offer though.... if you get a 4 star again, you have to take it because the odds go 2:3 against you.

HOWEVER, if you ever get a 3 star, odds will be in your favour ALL the way to the end, even on the last day because you might say you have equal chance of gaining 2 stars or losing 2 stars... but you can also get the same... which is okay with you.. so you have a 60% at the end if you have a 3 star.

in other words, 2/5 + 2/5= 4/5 for next 2 days
only 2/5 for 4* or better after the 2nd day
but yeah your description sounds a lot more professional..