PowerPlay Журнал

We have all been there, do I or don't I accept this offer from the sponsors. Sure some are easy, we all know to decline 1 star offers and accept 5 star offers but what do you do when you receive 2, 3 or 4 star offers? When is it best to risk it for the big contract? When is it best to play it safe? This article will talk about some potential strategies but keep in mind the result here is based on a simulation and pure chance. There is always a chance that you'll get lucky or unlucky, whether you play the odds or take a risk is up to you.

First and foremost let me explain my procedure and assumptions. What I did was write a simulation that tested the result of various cutoff thresholds. For example, what happens if you accepted a 3 star or higher on the first or second offer or 2 star or higher on the third offer (3-3-2 threshold). I ran 50,000 iterations through each cutoff threshold. There were 64 cutoff thresholds tested varying from 2-2-2 to 5-5-5. There is one major assumption in the simulation: all star level offers have equal probability, which is the current operating assumption by managers of PPM and may or may not have been confirmed by one of the developers at one time. With this in mind, lets see what the best strategy is.

To compare one cutoff threshold tactic to the next the mean (average) star offer accepted over the 50,000 iterations would be the basis of comparison. This mean varies by at most approximately 0.7 stars given the difference between the maximum and minimum average observed. Keep this in mind when I discuss what is "the best" tactic. When I mention "within X% of max difference" I am referring to the number of cutoff thresholds that lay within X% max difference of the maximum mean star value cutoff threshold (best tactic). Now, the moment you've all been waiting for... the best sponsor signing tactic.

I will admit I was quite pleased with this result, as it was the tactic I employ and have been preaching to those who were unsure. If you were to employ a 4-4-3 cutoff threshold tactic you would obtain an average star offer rating of 4.19 stars from your sponsors. That is, if you accept anything 4 stars or higher on the first offer, 4 stars or higher on the second offer and 3 stars or higher on the third offer you will get the best deal (statistically speaking) for your club. The table below will outline the top 5 tactics to employ along with other notable tactics.

As you can see above, there isn't too much difference between the top 5 tactics, or any of the tactics for that matter. Statistically speaking, so long as you check every offer and decline every 1 star offer you should have an average sponsor offer of 3.5 stars. That's pretty good. But keep in mind the assumption at hand and that for every person offered a 5 star deal there is some poor chap offered a one star deal. Using the 4-4-3 method will not guarantee you a 4 star or higher offer every time. I have employed that tactic for some time and I auto-signed a 1 star soccer general sponsor deal this season after declining two one star and one two star offers. Sometimes you have bad luck, that's just how it goes. However, it is my hope that by doing this simulation and presenting it all to you that it will help you become a better manager. Good luck in your up coming hockey sponsor offers!

Thanks for reading and hope you have a wonderful weekend,
-Scott