Assunto: US National Team

Is the hockey database going to use the same projection logic that you've used on your site's soccer database?

Did you do any actual to expected analysis on the soccer projection logic? From what I've seen, it needs improvement.

well, it is not exact solution because of the TF ratio I give is not "exact". there is RF I dont consider for example if 2 teams are at TF 12 but one have RF level 2 and the other level 10, I have the same training ration

Also teams could have different coachs. so, in short, it is the closest estimate.


Also I dont consider the days of season so it calculates best at the start of the season.

Process will be similar. will start from scratch so I will try to tweak and make it run faster.

I uploaded my players to the soccer database on day 1 of the season. I also took a screenshot to do some actual to expected analysis.

I glanced through my players' OR and your projections for them and selected a few to examine. I then took their average training for this month (all of them are on automatic training and none of them were in camp this month) and projected their end of season OR (I've called this "Pace OR" for the following section). These results are only for this (i.e. 1) season.

Here's the highlights:

Arch Ward: Current OR (1103), Average Training (1.580), Pace OR (1201). Your projected OR (1123) Difference: +78

Chester Holmes: Current OR (1256), Average Training (1.505), Pace OR (1349). Your projected OR (1278) Difference: +71

Darrin Braxton: Current OR (1065), Average Training (1.495), Pace OR (1158). Your projected OR (1088) Difference: +70

Francisco Jalon: Current OR (1359), Average Training (1.603), Pace OR (1458). Your projected OR (1385) Difference: +73

Hudson Young: Current OR (1417), Average Training (1.658), Pace OR (1520). Your projected OR (1442) Difference: +78

Esteban Alaniz: Current OR (1046), Average Training (1.576), Pace OR (1144). Your projected OR (1209) Difference: -65

Note: you also have Alaniz expected to lose OR in his age 28 season and then gain OR in his age 29 and 30 seasons.

The fact that you've put together a site for players to be uploaded is great. However, I feel the projections should be improved if they are to be used for NT selections.

that gain and lose must be a bug.
the difference of OR from actual and predicted can have several reasons we will have to study and investigate.
a) predicted C/L not exactly what the real C/L is
b) the ratio based on TF is not correctly

I would suggest that you try to take account of the coaches if you haven't already done so. A player with coaches with a combined OR of 190 will improve notably less than one with 400 combined OR and equivalent facilities.

This might be difficult to do, especially since staff OR is not static (and might have to be uploaded or manually input). I suspect that the current lack of consideration of this aspect reflects this issue.

Even so, I would suggest that a fair portion of the error noted by Obryantj probably comes from staff.

In addition, using the average training to determine expected growth is helpful but not necessarily accurate. First, this number should be corrected for camps. Second, the growth of staff OR (or upgrade of facilities) could increase the number over time. Finally, there might not have been enough time for the data to normalize (perfect replicas on the same team might have different pace OR's explaining an error of a few OR).

At the very least, disregarding whatever happened with Alaniz as a potentially distinct issue, the predictions are fairly consistently inaccurate: there is only a maximum difference of 8 OR between errors (assuming that this is not a result of a bias in the sample players chosen to be posted). A national team manager would still be able to compare players relative to each other, even if the final result are not perfectly predicted.

that is the idea.. not to be exact. if there is an error, all players should have similar errors.

when i calculate CL, it is rounded number and may normalize later. the "calculation" of the CL uses some random factor (with some very good logic i used based on analyze from thousands of players in the database in different ages.

I cannot use staff because we'd have to start to scouting staff (and they can be change from time to time)

I just tried to adjust with some logic .. dont recall the logic, but lets say that i expect a manager that has full facilities have two staff close to 100

a manager with TF level 10 to have coaches at 50 or something like that.

hard to also include camp because the number of players that go to camp are limited and Id never know who would go to camp.

adjustments could be done on the ratio i use for each facility level. i used the ratios based on information that wer given to me by a few managers at different TF levels.

For alaniz, I suspect the bug is that perhaps it calculated the CL to be 0 and maybe something "bad" happened like maybe CL to be -1. not sure. I will have to look it. Planning to look at the issue and work on hockey tomorrow. I was unable to work today as planned.

Got the shots we wanted for the game but just couldn't put it in the back of the net.

I am embarassed ...

I knew it was a risk to start Kevin clinton but I wanted to give him a fair chance to prove he deserves to be in the rotation. I think he did very well and earned the spot. KillerPuck and i will discuss how many minutes we will give him. He will be our 2nd goalie

Oh wow. Sweet. I'll have to look at that box score now.

I am really really pleased with our goalie of the future. JOJO is doing a great job training him and he is proving his worth.

Preparation for this match wasn't great although we had more opportunities.

2nd loss of the preseason with a huge shot advantage but still unable to win.

Kind of surprised bulls4ever isn't running to retain possession of national team manager. Decided to finally throw my hat in the ring for a national team position.

I am so confused. Has Catscrap gained a supporter since going MIA in September and losing his team? I swear he had 9 before. Also, nice to see bulls is back in the race.

We moved one position in the rank. USA now ranks 19th.