Emnet: Questions & Answers

Stop whining. That game is normal.

I wish you luck, but I gave up trying to discuss the matter since he's apparently not going to be happy until the game is completely deterministic such that if the stronger team chooses the correct tactics, they will be guaranteed a victory.

As long as somewhere in the PPM universe there exists a low probability upset, it will be pointed to as a failure of the simulation/engine.

That is such a strong statement. I am afraid you are inside my brain. (not)

Here is my hand Kalles. Talk to the hand.

In your opinion: How big should be the chance to win a game with a 140 team vs. a 103 team?

Dear BeeJay, the issue here has nothing to do with the chances of a 140 vs a 103 team. If we get into that we would be forgetting all about tactics and its importance.

For a simulator to be reliable and consistent, we must observe that players and tactics are more important than luck. If we fail to have that, there is no point in chosing a strategic sports simulating game over a coin tossing game.

We got a quite interesting simulator for players and tactics concerning how this simulator translates those variables into scoring opportunities.

But this same simulator fails to translate scoring opportunities into goals in a more consistent and reliable way. That's all about it BeeJay.

If you won posession 60-40% you should win? Even you won shots like 15-5 you should win everytime?

I think there has to to be matches where underdog can win using their opportunities example 5 shots and 3 goals.

Thats why we have 42 games in one season. I honestly think that 42 games will show who has the number one team and who use tactical chances smartest.

Be careful, you are being catch into the one-game-analysis trap.

Inconsistency of the current simulator relies on the fact that today there is no significant increase in the winning chances if you have a 20-2 scoring chances match than if you have a 15-5 scoring chances match.

Every game starts with a chance to win. You're right, there are ways to influence this chance. For example the line-up or the tactics.

But the best team, the best line-up, the best tactic isn't a guarantee to win the game.
All this settings just raise your chance to win. And many of them are on shown in the rating, so imho you can talk about the chance to win a game based on team rating.

Back to your game: If I consider the home advantage as well and probably the best tactic, the chance to win this PPM game is about 80% and I think, that's ok!

That's ok for me (althought that's all about an opinion). But the point here is, you should expect this % to raise a lot when you face an opponent that does not shoot against you, but I really cannot see that happenning on that simulator. In other words, as long as I can see, and many people think that way too, the extreme cases (such as 20-2 in shots) are more suitable to "unfair" results than the barely common (such as 15-5) ones. The simulator has distortions on the boundaries of the probability spectrum. What that makes me think? Their normal (Gaussian-like) distribution has a variance that is unapropriatedly high.

To the point that sometimes I think it's better to set the match importance down such as to have, say, 14-6 scoring opportunities, because it really seems more frequent to win on that than when I have, say, 18-2.

You think, more games are won with shooting relation 14-6 than games with 18-2?

I see your point though I don't know if it is true.
But since you are speaking of a high variance of the distribution it seems like you did some statistics. That would be really interesting and maybe convincing to see.

do you have any numbers to support that? I very much doubt it. You just keep repeating the same all over again.

I ask you not to derail this thread any more. This is a Q&A thread and you have turned it into your own personal fight.

The problem is that in football, the number of shots per game is very low. Therefore the sample size of 90 minutes of 1 game is too small to talk about any kind of gaussian distribution.

Would you like me to display the numbers here?

I imagine that you will have to make an effort, but please try to understand that debating an issue is quite different than having a personal fight, and that writing about a doubt, bringing questions waiting for an answer, is not derailing a topic.